SPX has chopped sideways since last update, and the pattern now makes me inclined to believe that the odds of another leg down are better than 50%, so I have updated the charts accordingly. This is still a pretty tight call, but we probably have to lean this direction unless and until SPX sustains a breakout over the all-time-high.
I have also adjusted the upside targets for the possible (smaller) second leg up, which apply if SPX clears the 50% Fib:
NOTE TYPO -- Obviously, upside targets are 23xx, not 22xx!
The intermediate chart shows my preferred path, give or take a few points:
In conclusion, this remains a tight call, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that a larger second leg down appears to be the most probable resolution to this pattern. I am a bit less confident of the smaller second leg up that might precede it -- but the larger second leg down does look to be of reasonable probability. Trade safe.
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