Last update I mentioned how it was unlikely the bottom was in yet, and that I expected at least a couple micro fourth and fifth unwinds before a bottom would become possible. We got the pattern I was anticipating, and now there are enough waves in place for a complete decline. I cannot unequivocally state that the decline is complete, only that at least now the potential exists for it to be complete.
Bigger picture, it's interesting how perfectly SPX tested the confluence I'd drawn on this chart:
BKX has reached its first downside target zone. On the chart, the prospect that the final low is in for BKX looks a bit shaky, and a new low or two in BKX would not surprise me at all.
In conclusion, there are now enough waves for a complete correction in SPX. A minor new low is okay, but any sustained breakdown would need to be approached extremely carefully by bulls, as it would open the possibility of a notably deeper correction. Trade safe.
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