SPX is getting closer to the 2400 target, but may take a breather here. On the intermediate-term chart, we can see SPX just broke above its trend channel, so this may lead to a rubber-band snap-back to at least test the channel from above. If it falls back in and fails to reclaim it, then bears may get a larger reprieve, but right now, this is looking like a fourth wave correction (see 1-minute chart).
Below is the 2-hour SPX chart:
On the 1-minute chart, we can see the potential for some fourth wave shenanigans:
I also found the following chart interesting. This is the NFIB small business optimism index, and it spiked enormously on Trump's election. If this breakout sticks, it could translate into a positive impact on the real economy (remember the real economy? I think it's still out there somewhere, buried underneath a printing press and a bunch of Bernanke's beard clippings.)
Below is a breakdown with more detailed numbers:
So small businesses are more optimistic than they've been at any point over the past 12 years, and the 38% jump in businesses who "expect the economy to improve" under Trump (vs. how they felt in August under Obama/Clinton) is quite significant. Just as for individuals, positive expectations among businesses can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
In conclusion, SPX may be due for a breather, but thus far the bigger picture still remains bullish for now. Traders who are wondering where fuel and sentiment for a continued intermediate rally could come from might take note of the NFIB survey. Trade safe.
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