Commentary and chart analysis featuring Elliott Wave Theory, classic TA, and frequent doses of sarcasm.
Work published on Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq.com, Investing.com, RealClearMarkets, Minyanville, et al
Join the ongoing discussion with our friendly, knowledgeable, and collegial forum community here!
Amazon
Friday, April 22, 2016
SPX Update: All the Marbles
Last update's preferred count showed SPX as still needing a fifth wave into the 2110-25 target zone, and Wednesday's market provided that.
This is a familiar position for bears: We have a potentially complete wave structure, but as yet no larger impulsive decline to confirm a turn. This means that there could still be another fourth and fifth wave to unravel -- and, in fact, that might fit the pattern slightly better. But it isn't required, and we're into a price zone that has provided significant resistance on two prior occasions.
Way back near 1810, we knew that a rally of this magnitude was a distinct possibility, and I immediately began showing "Bull C" labels on the charts, up near 2116ish. So, in my mind, all the rally's progress to this point means very little from a technical standpoint. This price zone near the all-time-highs will provide the true test as to whether the bull market that began in 2009 is still underway or not.
The issue I have with this being the beginning of a major fifth wave isn't shown on this chart -- in fact, I haven't shown it at all in these updates, nor will I. Suffice to say that if this were to be a major fifth wave, there are certain markers I'll be watching for before I shift footing. As of yet, I'm still more inclined to think this is a second or (B) wave rally, and ultimately due to be retraced fully.
Near term, we could have completed ALL OF Bear (B)/2, but SPX could still support another fourth and fifth wave unravel.
In conclusion, the charts pretty much sum up my thoughts as well as I can -- basically, we're finally into the price zone that represents THE test for this market. Trade safe.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment