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Wednesday, April 25, 2012

SPX, COMPQ, and INDU Updates: Possible Reconciliation of Counts Across Markets


I've been trying to reconcile the counts across market, and may have found a solution tonight.  Each market gives a bit different appearance, and readers know I've referred back to RUT several times, which argues that the next low (assuming the market makes a new low) will most likely be a fifth wave and lead to a larger rally.  COMPQ seems to suggest the same thing.

A quick look at COMPQ first -- if the wave labeled as blue 4 exceeds the invalidation level, I'll consider switching it to the more bearish count of black 1 and 2.




Next, the INDU, which is much stronger in appearance than most other markets, and is giving the impression of a large triangle.




RUT isn't shown, as I didn't have time to update the chart, but readers can refer back a post or two for why I believe RUT's correction was a fourth wave.

So how to reconcile all these markets with SPX? 

Well, how about an expanding ending diagonal fifth wave?  This seems to fit not only the pattern, but the current patterns and expectations of other markets as well.  As such, this is my preferred count for SPX, shown in blue below.

The more bearish count, currently labeled as the alternate, would view the present decline as a nest of 1's and 2's.  We'll have to see if other markets invalidate their counts -- for example, if INDU invalidates the triangle, then we can seriously consider the mega-bearish 1-2 count.




For contrast, here's how the more bearish possibility would look.  Currently, this doesn't reconcile as well with other markets, but we'll keep watching to see how things unfold.  The appearances could all change tomorrow.  The alternate (iv) count still can't be ruled out, and might end up marking the next low (I view it as quite unlikely that the market's bottomed already -- too much overlap in the wave).




In conclusion, the market still has a few questions to answer to bring more clarity to the structure, but I'm still favoring the idea that new lows will be seen, likely this week.  Further, given what's in the charts at the moment, the ending diagonal currently reconciles all the markets fairly well.  Trade safe.


Morning open update -- not sure how I missed this earlier, but an expanded flat looks quite possible now:




Posted by PretzelLogic at 3:12 AM

216 comments:

  1. Pretzel LogicApril 25, 2012 at 3:13 AM

    Good morning.

    ReplyDelete
  2. herc17April 25, 2012 at 3:22 AM

    Thanks for the update

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  3. NostradumassApril 25, 2012 at 3:22 AM

    Good Morning PL...excellent job... my best regards to you and the family.

    ReplyDelete
  4. GGekkoApril 25, 2012 at 3:27 AM

    Hey J - most likely a tank after the Fed echos the ECB and says they've turned off the machine and want to see if this is a soft patch or a larger slowdown.  Again, all the easing does is kick the can in the hopes demand improves.

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  5. Whoa_NellieApril 25, 2012 at 3:34 AM

    Shorted euro overnight via limit order in E7M12 @ 1.3230, will short more if it goes higher.

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  6. SpikerJApril 25, 2012 at 3:36 AM

    Thanks for helping us in addition to caring for your family.

    Went to the funeral of a former co-worker recently.  I big turn-out.  She was a sweet person who probably never made an enemy.  Despite the loss, funerals do offer a chance to catch up with old fiends.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Pretzel LogicApril 25, 2012 at 3:37 AM

    If my count's right, it shouldn't materially exceed 1.32450.  In fact, if it gets back up that high, short the hell out of it.  With stops, of course.  :)

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  8. Pretzel LogicApril 25, 2012 at 3:38 AM

    Thanks to everyone for the kind thoughts yesterday.  Gotta run.  GL.  :)

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  9. Pretzel LogicApril 25, 2012 at 3:39 AM

    Yep, my expectations too.

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  10. Pretzel LogicApril 25, 2012 at 3:39 AM

    Thanks, jbg.  :)

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  11. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 3:40 AM

    stopped out of short es, reversed long, headed for top of channel at 1388

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  12. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 3:45 AM

    out, 81>> 84.5, gotta drive to work, could not hold

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  13. Whoa_NellieApril 25, 2012 at 3:46 AM

    with you there, reversed and long from 1383 es.  Great calls last several sessions, btw, congrats!

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  14. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 3:48 AM

    thnx, hate openings and closings, hard to call

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  15. Pretzel LogicApril 25, 2012 at 3:54 AM

    Summanab*tch, I don't know how I missed this earlier.  Well, actually I do.  Anyway, refresh your browser and check out the last chart I added on the update.  Possible expanded flat. 

    Okay, I really have to run now. 

    ReplyDelete
  16. NostradumassApril 25, 2012 at 4:00 AM

    Thanks PL...that makes aholoddacents :)

    ReplyDelete
  17. wwtraderApril 25, 2012 at 4:02 AM

    EW question on guessing targets. If the triangle on the INDU in chart 2 is happening, how do you work out the target for the rally? Is it theoretically, the distance from (iii) to A and then add that to E? Does that make it 13450?

    ReplyDelete
  18. NostradumassApril 25, 2012 at 4:04 AM

    Fade day...Isn't there a t-bill sale tomorrow?...They need equities lower (in theory).

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  19. Lena_W3April 25, 2012 at 4:05 AM

    Good morning,
    Yesterdays call was a good one. NDX and aapl jumped as thought. If it should be more then a little run, then this gap shall not close. DJ et al. also bullish to me. Happy hunting everyone. :)

    http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/8720/realtimestockchartsstoc.jpg 

    ReplyDelete
  20. CCAvatarApril 25, 2012 at 4:09 AM

    My condolences, PL. You're quite the trooper for still managing to write given your situation.

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  21. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 4:10 AM

    is there an E building, not sure about that. either 1.27 or 1.618 times length of 3 to 4 (in this case I would use A to C), or length of EW1.

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  22. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 4:13 AM

    Good morning 4runnerguy, chart here, but IM doesn't work in sideways markets like this, sorry :)

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  23. JuiceBoxBoyApril 25, 2012 at 4:14 AM

     So the 1392 level for the invalidation of both bear counts is no longer a consideration?  The target blue box shoots past that level.

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  24. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 4:15 AM

    niiiice one ;)

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  25. 4RunnerguyApril 25, 2012 at 4:18 AM

     It does appear to go down with the red clouds and up with the green.  Thanks anyway.

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  26. DoomMerchantApril 25, 2012 at 4:21 AM

    Proposed count... LD down, 2 up

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  27. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 4:26 AM

    SPX 1390 still holding, how many pops is that now... must be approaching 30 on the hourly chart...

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  28. wwtraderApril 25, 2012 at 4:40 AM

    I thought you were off to work? but I do appreciate the reply. I had come up with the triangle count when I reread the EW paper you posted on the last thread but PL was way ahead of me, naturally. I'm just trying to work out whether the FOMC is going to pop to the long-awaited final high (I failed to cover a short earlier :(    )

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  29. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 4:44 AM

    I am at work, drove after I covered. 

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  30. DoomMerchantApril 25, 2012 at 4:57 AM

    seeing potential of the first minor impulse down from the high

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  31. Lena_W3April 25, 2012 at 5:03 AM

    The short time frame.
    Here, why yesterday you could know the result of the aapl numbers before: http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/4094/realtimestockchartsstoco.jpg

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  32. Max MallanApril 25, 2012 at 5:05 AM

    OK this is going off of Jason's update with the expanded flat possibility - looking to see if wave C of (II) might be complete already

    Unlike my SPX 1580 chart yesterday, this is not a joke ;-)

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  33. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 5:13 AM

    Key resist levels in SPX 1390 and INDU 13100. Both battered and bruised but holding. I suspect they'll go away and gather more strength for more pops at those levels. We aren't in a down trend yet so keep an eye on those levels.

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  34. NJ268April 25, 2012 at 5:14 AM

    great call & keep it coming! :-)

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  35. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 5:14 AM

    well blow me down, there was me thinking O.M.Goodness he's gone stir crazy.. lol 

    ReplyDelete
  36. CherekApril 25, 2012 at 5:15 AM

    Doesn't 2 to 3 have to be the longest move?

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  37. JuiceBoxBoyApril 25, 2012 at 5:15 AM

     DM, are you expecting this first impulse down to be part of a 3 down based on your counts on the charts you posted today?  Thanks

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  38. JuiceBoxBoyApril 25, 2012 at 5:20 AM

     Love the Chuck Norris reference.  I knew he did alot but not trading stocks.  On that note, did you know he broke the land speed record on a bicycle that was missing it's chain and back tire?  lol

    ReplyDelete
  39. Max MallanApril 25, 2012 at 5:20 AM

    Ideally, but as long as it's not the shortest it works.

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  40. DoomMerchantApril 25, 2012 at 5:21 AM

    yes...LD 1 down, 2 up, and now a wave 3 down ...check out the same setup in CAT which has been leading the market

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  41. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 5:21 AM

    Good afternoon JBB, that level would invalidate the previous chart but would not invalidate a different bear count, just change the prior conditions. But there isn't any strong reliable evidence yet of a trend change IMHO so I'm assuming we are trending upwards until the facts change, then I'll change my mind ;)

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  42. Max MallanApril 25, 2012 at 5:24 AM

    This is meant to be anything to trade off of.  Wave 4 just looks wrong to me, and i of 5 was a stretch to get it to count.  Just something to spark ideas, maybe.

    ReplyDelete
  43. JuiceBoxBoyApril 25, 2012 at 5:25 AM

     Nice, thanks

    ReplyDelete
  44. Max MallanApril 25, 2012 at 5:25 AM

    lol I know Juicy realized I was kidding.  I'm not sure anyone else did

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  45. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 5:30 AM

    Something odd just struck me. The NDX Sochastic MI is low towards the 'buy' zone, INDU is high towards the 'sell' zone and SPX is hovering in the 'Idontknowwhattodonoextmidzone'. So what gives? You could call three separate scenarios based on those three readings, up/down/sideways, weird or what?

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  46. DoomMerchantApril 25, 2012 at 5:32 AM

    the LD count i posted below would support the idea of today's high being a top

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  47. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 5:35 AM

    If this is 4 then 5 should exceed the prior high and kill the 4th wv triangle but confirm the flat. It's all to play for. Same reasoning in INDU, same result. PL's flat would confirm 'down', a triangle, 'down-but-not-yet-and-youll-make-a-lot-more-money'! Either way we should be shorting very soon right?

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  48. Max MallanApril 25, 2012 at 5:36 AM

    Actually makes sense to me... market's in a fight to fill the gap or keep running away.  You'd expect things to get messy near turning points - so either the NDX capitulates, or there's a move higher followed by the sell off

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  49. NostradumassApril 25, 2012 at 5:42 AM

    Everybody needs dreams...That's my dream by the way...confirmed by Rorschach.

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  50. Max MallanApril 25, 2012 at 5:42 AM

    So rally back to 138ish and then fed minutes come out for wave III?

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  51. DoomMerchantApril 25, 2012 at 5:44 AM

    seems likely ... the risk/reward is unreal with a stop at SPX 1393/1394

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  52. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 5:45 AM

    $SPX

    http://screencast.com/t/NQSuTGSZ9F3

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  53. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 5:46 AM

    The more I look at SPX MM the more I see a nice abc wave to A, a typically messy 'B' wave then this lovely sock it to 'em 'C' wave which has shocked everyone... just like it does. So, I'm definitely on the side of a flat 51%/49% in favour. At the moment.

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  54. NostradumassApril 25, 2012 at 5:47 AM

    no fears...you're as sane as anyone else who posts here...rut roh  8<>

    ReplyDelete
  55. DoomMerchantApril 25, 2012 at 5:47 AM

    It's possible the 2 wave retracement up has already come and gone

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  56. Max MallanApril 25, 2012 at 5:58 AM

    Why does it have to exceed 1393?  All the criteria are met for an expanded flat...

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  57. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 6:00 AM

    lookin for good drop within 1.2 hour

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  58. KB03April 25, 2012 at 6:02 AM

    FOMC statement in 1.38 hour

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  59. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 6:06 AM

    If it exceeded 1393 then the postulated 4th wv triangle dies, and F&P p45  ' wave C .... generally terminates just slightly beyond the end of wv A'. Doesn't have to I agree but looks a lot nicer, neat and tidy, text book stuff. Its a wrap as they say...

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  60. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 6:06 AM

    think it is at 12:15? I do not really watch the news

    ReplyDelete
  61. Max MallanApril 25, 2012 at 6:07 AM

    Alright I gotta go drop my car off for a service.  Out of Amazon bear call spread, into additional spy bear call spread with short at 139 fri expiration.  Still holding spread with short at 137/long 138 friday expiration, and still holding bear calls on COST and RL.  All baby sized positions.

    ReplyDelete
  62. JuiceBoxBoyApril 25, 2012 at 6:07 AM

     2:15 EST

    ReplyDelete
  63. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 6:16 AM

    Give people random pictures or numbers and pretty soon they start seeing patterns.. in whatever field you like including market charts!! True, modern psychology confirms... humans are useless at discerning randomness, we aren't built for it. AAPL (they make iStuff by the way) had to make their iPod shuffle less random to please people who complained when they say heard the same tune twice in succession, which is perfectly possible in a random environment. Humans are weird. There's a lot of wealthy people around, all due to randomness, they won the lottery..

    ReplyDelete
  64. KB03April 25, 2012 at 6:23 AM

    Scratch that - FOMC statement release at 11:30 CST (10 min.) and press conference at 1:15 CST.
    Don't watch news much either since EW bootcamp, do pay attention to the Bearded One though

    ReplyDelete
  65. DoomMerchantApril 25, 2012 at 6:27 AM

    Bring the DOOM !!!

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  66. KB03April 25, 2012 at 6:35 AM

    PM's headed for the exit door

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  67. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 6:39 AM

    now need to break 80.25 es

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  68. NostradumassApril 25, 2012 at 6:50 AM

    I always thrived in disorder (prolly ADD rearing its head, a defect), hence my inclination to, and relative calm in emergent situations. But then again, that calmness was only the result of applying procedural algos to elemental observations...Pretty cool analogy about "shuffling" -- how it's not random after all...I did not know that. Tonight, I shall amaze the wife with that tidbit.

    ReplyDelete
  69. matsteryApril 25, 2012 at 6:50 AM

     GLD broke through 3-1/2 year-old support trendline.  We'll see if it holds.

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  70. Whip_sawedApril 25, 2012 at 6:57 AM

    For those RUTrs our there, it's hugging the trendline until something happens...most likely the Fed conference at 2:15 EST.  I'm betting (via TZA) that it will drop like a rock however stop-limits are in place. 

    Safe-trading everyone

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  71. Whip_sawedApril 25, 2012 at 6:57 AM

    Oops, forgot the chart

    ReplyDelete
  72. KB03April 25, 2012 at 7:02 AM

    Four touches of the lower trendline and the 300 MA in the last 4 months, which are now traveling together - a close below would not be good and would confirm bearish 50/200 cross IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  73. dorloffApril 25, 2012 at 7:04 AM

     I know you've discussed this before, but I can't seem to figure out how to get the ES to quote on Scottrade.  Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  74. NostradumassApril 25, 2012 at 7:09 AM

    We're on the same boat. See you at the buffet :)

    ReplyDelete
  75. Yogi69April 25, 2012 at 7:14 AM

    short <ES 2min ago order hit target 89.5

    ReplyDelete
  76. matsteryApril 25, 2012 at 7:14 AM

    Talk about a whipsaw.  That's was enough to break your neck.

    ReplyDelete
  77. matsteryApril 25, 2012 at 7:18 AM

    Anybody else having trouble with where "replies" are posted?   Over the past coupla days, they have not always been posting under the comment I am replying to but rather posting at the top as a new comment.  Sometimes they do, sometimes not.

    ReplyDelete
  78. KB03April 25, 2012 at 7:20 AM

    PM's went back to their seats for the encore performance 

    ReplyDelete
  79. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 7:22 AM

    you are short at 84 area looking for 89?

    ReplyDelete
  80. EgyptianTraderApril 25, 2012 at 7:23 AM

    Anybody with a clue why the Euro is not going down? It is trading below its intra day upward  trendline yet it seems to be showing quite some resilience with buyers pushing it up every time it approaches 13180 level. Anyone has a clue?

    ReplyDelete
  81. herc17April 25, 2012 at 7:27 AM

    me neither, try forexpros.com

    ReplyDelete
  82. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 7:46 AM

    bounce was higher that I thought, break 82 and we go down, if not 87 should finish off EW5

    ReplyDelete
  83. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 7:49 AM

    prolly need a special feed, costs money

    ReplyDelete
  84. Yogi69April 25, 2012 at 7:50 AM

     ups, i ment i went sport when SPX hit 89.5 so ES was 85.50

    ReplyDelete
  85. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 7:51 AM

    short ES at 84.5, SL 86

    ReplyDelete
  86. truerangeballisticApril 25, 2012 at 7:52 AM

    One thought has been the repatriation trade of dollars to euros. Not my opionion but what some folks are floating around.

    PL I wish you and your family the best. My prayers are with you. God bless.

    ReplyDelete
  87. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 7:57 AM

    okay, I get it now

    ReplyDelete
  88. EgyptianTraderApril 25, 2012 at 8:04 AM

     Thnx.

    ReplyDelete
  89. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 8:04 AM

    third (and final???) test of 80.25?

    ReplyDelete
  90. Lena_W3April 25, 2012 at 8:06 AM

    Silver 

    Possible nice setup in the making...
    http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/5713/futureschartsrealtimefum.jpg
    can get a new low, but start looks promising for a long way up. Gold missing one low, so not perfect, but silver should make first a new local high, before a new low. With the new high the SL can move closer...

    ReplyDelete
  91. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 8:09 AM

    I use this chart as a general directional guide if 80.25 breaks.

    http://screencast.com/t/NQSuTGSZ9F3

    ReplyDelete
  92. Lena_W3April 25, 2012 at 8:10 AM

    5h Chart http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/4006/futureschartsrealtimefuv.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  93. Lena_W3April 25, 2012 at 8:15 AM

    and big picture http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/9950/futureschartsrealtimefu.jpg

    but also only one trade for me. :)

    ReplyDelete
  94. Bob_EApril 25, 2012 at 8:17 AM

    Howdy....out all morning, have some Nenner updates. Will post shortly.

    ReplyDelete
  95. KB03April 25, 2012 at 8:18 AM

    Nice charts Lena - thanks for sharing.

    ReplyDelete
  96. DoomMerchantApril 25, 2012 at 8:20 AM

    The Bernank always sounds petrified

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  97. Clayton233April 25, 2012 at 8:24 AM

    wow bearded ben talks and and spx bounces over HOD...  

    ReplyDelete
  98. Lena_W3April 25, 2012 at 8:25 AM

    http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/9950/futureschartsrealtimefu.jpg

    DJ min Chart. Sorry a little late, but I am trading also....

    ReplyDelete
  99. JuiceBoxBoyApril 25, 2012 at 8:29 AM

     What in the world did he say that caused the small bounce?

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  100. Bob_EApril 25, 2012 at 8:32 AM

    Nenner: (fine line between genius and crackers)

    Markets continue on a sell signal....close above 1387 and 2711 would be buy signals which could lead to test of the highs.
    No position in Gold or Silver, a close above 1690 and 32.80 would be a buy signal
    Crude..a close above 105.20 would be a buy signal
    Nat Gas...continues on a sell signal .....buy  on a close above 2.09. 
    Yesterday we bought ECAand expect it to perform once Nat Gas bottoms
    Bonds..long 30 & 10 yr, stops at 141.17, 131.07 and 116.50 on TLT
    Euro a close above 133.60 eur/usd is needed to buy..... cycle low in May

    Addendum to his daily......"For those who bought ECA, we want to take profits"

    ReplyDelete
  101. JuiceBoxBoyApril 25, 2012 at 8:33 AM

     Bob_E when you get a chance please do share your insight today as to where you feel CVX is at in W4.  Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  102. DoomMerchantApril 25, 2012 at 8:35 AM

    could just be technical bounce... i sure don't know

    ReplyDelete
  103. Clayton233April 25, 2012 at 8:35 AM

    nothing that gave me confidence as an individual, but if your an institution - another 2 years to borrow  money for free might do it...   :)  

    ReplyDelete
  104. NostradumassApril 25, 2012 at 8:37 AM

    constant problem

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  105. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 8:38 AM

    buying the 81 area ans shorting th 8607 area

    ReplyDelete
  106. Lena_W3April 25, 2012 at 8:39 AM

    and stopped... Bernanke makes some crazy waves. *ggg

    ReplyDelete
  107. NostradumassApril 25, 2012 at 8:40 AM

    I noticed the same thing...like the kids are back stage with "monitors" for their "safety".

    ReplyDelete
  108. Clayton233April 25, 2012 at 8:40 AM

    lol CNBC had on the crawler.  BERNANKE: higher inflation would affect inflation projections

    ReplyDelete
  109. 4RunnerguyApril 25, 2012 at 8:43 AM

    How does that relate to SPX.

    ReplyDelete
  110. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 8:45 AM

    add 6.50 to ES for $SPX

    ReplyDelete
  111. Bob_EApril 25, 2012 at 8:48 AM

    No change.....still think a complex wave 4, then down into five. ExxonMobil raised their div today by 21% and their earnings due tomorrow...CVX due 4/27. 

    ReplyDelete
  112. JuiceBoxBoyApril 25, 2012 at 8:51 AM

     http://www.forexpros.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures-advanced-chart
    Those are RT on the ES.  That difference btw the futures and cash seems to vary day to day, from what I've seen between about 4-6 points.

    ReplyDelete
  113. JuiceBoxBoyApril 25, 2012 at 8:52 AM

     DM, what did that pop on SPX do to your count for the day?

    ReplyDelete
  114. JuiceBoxBoyApril 25, 2012 at 9:00 AM

    Someone posted a vid the other day of guy doing an update from the trading floor, "Wolfman" was his name (forget who posted, sorry), he said that real inflation is 10%+ if using the same metrics used to gauge inflation in 1980.

    ReplyDelete
  115. 4RunnerguyApril 25, 2012 at 9:00 AM

     Thanks Katzo7.

    ReplyDelete
  116. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 9:03 AM

    now ES and $SPX are equal

    ReplyDelete
  117. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 9:15 AM

    there is an upsloping channel, short at 87-8 but cover and buy at 82 now

    ReplyDelete
  118. matsteryApril 25, 2012 at 9:19 AM

    I think anyone who buys everyday products knows that the current inflation rate is much higher than the Fed will admit.  Bread, milk, eggs, cereal, coffee, packaged meat, etc., etc., have all skyrocketed in the past 3 years.  Hell, the Taco Bell meal that I have been buying on a regular basis for the past 2 years has jumped from $3.59 to $6.25!  Exact same meal.

    ReplyDelete
  119. 4RunnerguyApril 25, 2012 at 9:20 AM

    UKDNY, is CVX getting close to the end of the green cloud?

    ReplyDelete
  120. Bob_EApril 25, 2012 at 9:22 AM

    I think the CVX specialist is up here lookin for me.....but I got my camo on.

    ReplyDelete
  121. DoomMerchantApril 25, 2012 at 9:25 AM

    an ED 5th or C wave???  hard to be sure of anything amongst this whip

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  122. DoomMerchantApril 25, 2012 at 9:29 AM

    bears can hope this little 1 down level holds - or short against it

    ReplyDelete
  123. 4RunnerguyApril 25, 2012 at 9:31 AM

    Bob_E, you are the CVX specialist.  I just find that Ichi Moku kind of interesting because it appears to be pretty accurate and shows a timeframe also.

    ReplyDelete
  124. pdragounApril 25, 2012 at 9:31 AM

    Very good article in my opinion! Worth reading:

    http://etfdailynews.com/2012/04/25/technicals-are-the-markets-at-a-logical-bottom-spy-xhb-xlf-indexsp-inx/

    ReplyDelete
  125. GPittApril 25, 2012 at 9:37 AM

    I have devoted some time to study the behavior of the AAPL stock and AAPL options, the weekly options casino in particular (as this is certainly making some people very, very rich), and found these two interesting articles. Pay attention to the dates, as the first is from early last week and the second was published yesterday.
    http://www.stateofthemarkets.com/report/16423/The-Apple-Trading-Game-2012-How-You-Can-Profit-From-the-Patternhttp://www.stateofthemarkets.com/report/16527/The-AAPL-Trading-Game-Part-II

    ReplyDelete
  126. Bob_EApril 25, 2012 at 9:44 AM

    Well thanks fourrunner, but I'll beg off the "specialist list" I've asked the good doctor many times what he thought about CVX as Itchy applies myself. I really like the way CVX trades and it's adhered to a number of EW rules/guidelines. But good lord knows the "herd" can throw a monkey wrench into the gears at any moment. I have my stops and my risk/reward numbers, so I'm sittin back watchin. Wanna a beer?

    ReplyDelete
  127. CalDApril 25, 2012 at 9:53 AM

    FYI: I just sold off some SSO that I bought when the market gapped down on Monday. Feel free to take this as an indicator of higher prices to come -- I kinda do, but a target is a target.

    ReplyDelete
  128. 4RunnerguyApril 25, 2012 at 9:55 AM

     Looks like the doctor is out right now.

    ReplyDelete
  129. Whoa_NellieApril 25, 2012 at 9:58 AM

    If someone tells a good dirty joke on the floor of the NYSE, we will hit the bear KO level at $spx 1392.76 at the close.  ES futes are about 4 - 4.25 below the cash.

    ReplyDelete
  130. Bob_EApril 25, 2012 at 9:59 AM

    a spot o tea

    ReplyDelete
  131. 4RunnerguyApril 25, 2012 at 10:01 AM

     Too bad I didn't buy that call on CVX a couple of days ago.  It would have worked out really well.  I'm still waiting for the chance to buy some more puts.  It should be coming up soon.  I'm not sure how earnings might play into things though.  Earnings are a strange thing.  I've been holding a call for awhile on GLW and they reported today, and the stock took off.  It may be in a new wave 1.  Take a look at it if you get a chance and see what you think.

    ReplyDelete
  132. DoomMerchantApril 25, 2012 at 10:11 AM

    hmmm ... we'll have to wait to see - ED into close?!

    ReplyDelete
  133. CalDApril 25, 2012 at 10:13 AM

    I don't think I've ever seen ES hold razor flat like this from 4:00 to 4:15. 

    ReplyDelete
  134. t_winnApril 25, 2012 at 10:27 AM

    Interesting!  This guy bought AAPL calls 660 three days after AAPL topped out at 644.   Had he read Katzo's post calling for AAPL top at 636-639 the day before AAPL topped out, he wouldn't have done it.

    BTW, Katzo did a great job calling AAPL top and bottom.  Katzo's targets were the closest to actual AAPL top & bottom among a couple of EW gurus that I've seen.

    ReplyDelete
  135. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 10:41 AM

    thnx t_winn

    ReplyDelete
  136. tuzocat29April 25, 2012 at 10:56 AM

    this is what I was seeing.

    ReplyDelete
  137. DirtnRockGuy62April 25, 2012 at 11:32 AM

    K7 what did you make out of this mess today? I got a sense that it has a little punch left to the upside but the path of least resistance is down.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Whip_sawedApril 25, 2012 at 11:56 AM

    Buffet is temporarily post-poned.  Hopefully tomorrow.  Boy am I hungry!  :D

    ReplyDelete
  139. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 11:59 AM

    good evening 4R, chart here, not close yet. Looks like 1st week in May it will get there, but then again, might not. All probabilities .kind regards

    ReplyDelete
  140. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 12:02 PM

    Sugar? one lump or two ? & Do you put the milk in first or after you've poured the tea. On such matters does English life depend. Letters are written to the Times from: 'Disgusted' Tunbridge Wells... :)
    yep, really..

    ReplyDelete
  141. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 12:06 PM

    we got one ... SPX 1390.68   NDX is right there too, 2709.62... how high I wonder.?

    ReplyDelete
  142. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 12:09 PM

    good evening LW3, that is Such a nice wave, straight out of the text book. Be interesting to see how far she goes.

    ReplyDelete
  143. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 12:25 PM

    Anyone seeing this ending triangle in INDU.? If it is then tomorrow will see it finish the last few minor waves of 5 of 5 then kaboom... down we go.

    ReplyDelete
  144. rhejyApril 25, 2012 at 1:11 PM

    UK ya was seeing that.. if flat is right then yes dn we go. btw nice to see some EWers in same place

    ReplyDelete
  145. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 1:48 PM

    How about an ending diagonal in INDU, takes another week, ? 10 days.?.. to a new high. I like it, but could be wrong, time will tell.

    ReplyDelete
  146. UKDNYApril 25, 2012 at 1:52 PM

    Good evening rhejy, INDU is holding up nicely overnight, 13095 so looks like will open 'up' and complete, then retrace. I posted (above) another thought, what d'you think. Possible?.Plausible? Inevitable? lol

    ReplyDelete
  147. DirtnRockGuy62April 25, 2012 at 1:53 PM

    Dumb question of the week for you kind sir.... What's the difference in the ending triangle and it's move lower and the ending diagonal taking it higher?

    ReplyDelete
  148. Pretzel LogicApril 25, 2012 at 2:02 PM

    I think the expanded flat is prolly right.  Should head to 1395-1408.  Think there's at least one more 4th down and 5th up still in it -- possibly two.

    Sorry for having missed that option on Tuesday, the a-b-c appearance of the rally fooled me -- and I'm too busy dealing w/ family issues right now to have 100% focus (or even 60%), which is what's requires to effectively challenge your assumptions each day.  My apologies.    :(

    ReplyDelete
  149. Ray_1April 25, 2012 at 2:04 PM

    Irish support for Merkozy treaty drops from near 50% to 30%.....

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/04/irish-support-for-merkozy-treaty-drops.html

    ReplyDelete
  150. Bob_EApril 25, 2012 at 2:22 PM

    I wish I was English......

    ReplyDelete
  151. Whip_sawedApril 25, 2012 at 2:25 PM

    No apologies necessary PL.  Support the family first and foremost. 

    ReplyDelete
  152. rhejyApril 25, 2012 at 2:34 PM

    i bought the F&P back in the early 80's been hooked ever since. i like your ending diaginal becauce im short lol. however C wave of of flat should excede A wave high. would also flush stops over A top. buying B/O hasnt worked. so your count might just be right.

    ReplyDelete
  153. Whip_sawedApril 25, 2012 at 2:40 PM

    PL,

    A question for you on the RUT if you have the time/inclination:  It looks like we got your (4) at 11:21 on 4/24, is it possible that the (5) failed at 2:30?

    ReplyDelete
  154. rhejyApril 25, 2012 at 2:50 PM

    is there an auto refresh on this thing????

    ReplyDelete
  155. Whip_sawedApril 25, 2012 at 2:55 PM

    Welcome, rhejy

    No.  The best way to get continuous updates is to subscribe by e-mail.  There's a link at the bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  156. rhejyApril 25, 2012 at 3:01 PM

    thx whip ill ck it out

    ReplyDelete
  157. smileguy1April 25, 2012 at 3:04 PM

    great call! and thanks for getting it right while dealing with your family's loss. my deepest condolences

    ReplyDelete
  158. NostradumassApril 25, 2012 at 3:28 PM

    No apologies required for having your priorities in the absolute right place. :)

    I'm just getting into flats (again) in the F&P. I do believe my EW education will require lots of highlighting, dog-eared pages, ruined eyesight, and sleep deprivation...but it'll be worth it.

    ReplyDelete
  159. smileguy1April 25, 2012 at 3:33 PM

    looks like we're finsihing up this a zz with a ending diaganol that was on its fifth as the market closed but will only take us up to 1393, not quite high enough for PL's target, but exactly equal to A. So, I'm thinking its looking like it could be a double zig zag for this c   finsih up to 1393 in am or o/n. then down to 1377 for the X, then back up to PL's target range. anyone know the normal c length compared to a besides equal? 1.27 and 1.61 are both right near channel resistance. c=1.61xA brings us to 1411, touch the underside of the oct-april uptrend line and the top of this wave 2 channel we're in now, simultaneously on tuesday.

    any input of any kind, especially the fibinocci ratios used.

    ReplyDelete
  160. Whip_sawedApril 25, 2012 at 3:41 PM

    BTW: it (e-mail update) appears to be buggy from time to time.  Also: today/tonight is one of the quietest I've seen in quite awhile.

    ReplyDelete
  161. frannybrdApril 25, 2012 at 3:54 PM

    OK, an expanded flat - is there any consistency to how these end up?

    ReplyDelete
  162. smileguy1April 25, 2012 at 4:55 PM

    i also think we're staying afloat here for some more time. i think may 2 will the high. but since the ED(the small one on the spx) is going to to end this uptrend tomorrow am w just a few more points, then the impending drop just an x in the double zigzag to the targets and timeframe we're both eyeing. maybe we'll be right. check out my post above for a chart

    ReplyDelete
  163. DirtnRockGuy62April 25, 2012 at 5:17 PM

    No apologies necessary. You have your hands full - we will muddle along here and see if we can't collectively sort it out.

    ReplyDelete
  164. DirtnRockGuy62April 25, 2012 at 5:22 PM

    Awwww righty here - all y'all who been reading up on flats:  What is a 3,3,5 expanding flat's general outcome?  Come on Nostra and Bob_E, Whip, UKDNY, Katzo somebody,  anybody......

    ReplyDelete
  165. bastiat31April 25, 2012 at 5:59 PM

     hey pretzy i hope you're holding up ok.  my thoughts are with you.

    here's a slightly different view of the world as we know it. 

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/926530-stock_creeper/495681-the-daily-view-alcoa-earnings-europe-education-krugman-stocks-and-healthcare

    ReplyDelete
  166. Pretzel LogicApril 25, 2012 at 6:06 PM

    C is usually 1.618 x a's length. But because of the extended fifth, it could fall a hair short. ________________________________

    ReplyDelete
  167. Max MallanApril 25, 2012 at 6:22 PM

    Diagonals are motive waves that go in the direction on the larger waveform.  Triangles are corrective that go opposing the larger waveform.  As far as I can tell, their structures are very similar.  The difference is a matter of personality and their place in the world.  A diagonal, each odd wave (1, 3, 5) will have successively higher highs/lower lows, and wave 3 cannot be the shortest.  Triangles will tend towards a sideways resolution.


    Hope that helps.  And hope I got it right haha!         

    ReplyDelete
  168. AlbertarocksApril 25, 2012 at 6:25 PM

    Sorry I got out of the loop for a while my friends.  Just finished an episode of "no freaking power for the past 36 hours".  Words cannot describe how much smoke was coming out of my ears two hours ago.   But now my blood pressure is back to a very healthy normal and I once again feel like I own the world.  But in order to regain that feeling that I'm at least in control of something I had to buy an ant farm today.  So that's what I did.  Tomorrow I'm going to pretend it's world of ant-bankers and I'm going to flush the whole god damned thing down the toilet.  After I've poured sulphuric acid all over and let that soak in for a few hours before I set it on fire and then put the fire out with my own personal stream of yellow water.  Normally I'm not quite that violent but the local power company has this nasty habit of turning me into an angry violent monster every once in a while, lol..

    I just hate being out of the loop like this and it's really amazing how lost a person feels "left behind" the information stream.  But just for the hell of it, I'll submit this wave count that shows both bullish and bearish scenarios as I see it.  As always, please take my wave counts with a huge helping of salt.  The bearish count is in pink and the bullish in blue.  Both are entirely possible in my opinion.

    Having submitted this though, I have to admit that I'm seeing a few things on the market internals front, particularly NYSI (based on NYMO) that is showing something potentially "very" bullish.  If that's what's really happening then we're very likely looking at just the first wave of 5 heading higher.  If that's the case, the idea about "sell in May and go away"... forget it.

    ReplyDelete
  169. Max MallanApril 25, 2012 at 8:21 PM

    I don't want to get into a discussion of my views on the world on someone else's comment section, but I'm just going to state for the record that I think this guy is a wacko.

    ReplyDelete
  170. Lena_W3April 25, 2012 at 10:08 PM

    yep, that is always the question. Could have been the bottom for some time or just an a for a zigzag.
    But always a good sign for at least one more high, and there you can make a little money out of it... or now one could take the stop now over entry level.

    ReplyDelete
  171. Lena_W3April 25, 2012 at 10:22 PM

    DJ min
    http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/6946/futureschartsrealtimefuh.jpg
    next long look at the green line. With red I have to think again...

    Silver stop up, or partial TP could be wise...

    ReplyDelete
  172. katzo7April 25, 2012 at 11:36 PM

     doji on the 15. twin pipes on the 120, we head down for a while in this oscillating mrtkt,

    ReplyDelete
  173. Whoa_NellieApril 26, 2012 at 12:35 AM

    Limit order on e7m12 got filled overnight at 1.3244.  I'm not exactly short the farm, but short a decent sized garden.  Would like to see Dax fall beneath 6500 to confirm change in German sentiment about bailing out their neighbors...

    ReplyDelete
  174. katzo7April 26, 2012 at 12:37 AM

    T1 of 82-3 hit

    ReplyDelete
  175. Pretzel LogicApril 26, 2012 at 12:42 AM

    eur/usd has confirmed the ending diagonal I mentioned yesterday and is now breaking down.  See chart -- this is textbook, and my confidence in this trade is very high. 

    This is a trade to just chase with stops, if you try to get in front of a diagonal breakdown, it will usually leave ya behind because they move fast.  Diagonals trap a *lot* of longs, and the selling pressure is high.  Just my 2 cents.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  176. Pretzel LogicApril 26, 2012 at 12:47 AM

    Basically, that little area up where the v is is where virtually all the shorts had their stops taken out.  So only the really smart traders are short now.  ;)

    ReplyDelete
  177. UKDNYApril 26, 2012 at 12:57 AM

    Hi DRG, it is one of the areas of confusion in EWT labeling since both are 5 wv structures with overlapping 3s and usually wedge. Triangles occur mostly at the 4th wv position and are lbld from the 3rd wv termination: a (down) b (up) c (dn) d (up) e (dn) which is end of 4th wv. They move sideways.  Next move is up in  a 5wv 5th and that tops the structure. Diagonals go diagonally mostly up, and are lbld from 4th wv termination: 1(up) 2 (dn ) 3 (up) 4 (dn) 5 up in 3 wvs and that tops the structure. There are variations (see F&P book) but the above are the most commomn. Hope that helps :) Chart may help visualise? kind regards

    ReplyDelete
  178. NostradumassApril 26, 2012 at 1:02 AM

     No fair PL...lol...But I enjoyed the "Pertinent Question of the Day"...

    Trebek...We meet again...I'll take "Months That Begin with Feb" for 1000.

    ReplyDelete
  179. UKDNYApril 26, 2012 at 1:05 AM

    UK back in recession. FTSE reaction? gap up and 50% surge in 30 minutes, madness. INDU was 13,139 and SPX 1,396.3 overnight so you should see some action after the open. Rules out 4th wv triangles but ending diag INDU still alive, see what PL makes of it when he posts, really in an ideal world this should all top out today/tomorrow and we set off down. Be sooo nice.

    ReplyDelete
  180. Pretzel LogicApril 26, 2012 at 1:05 AM

    Ya know, the more I look at this thing... I'm not even sure it's a c-wave.  No clarity beyond the next 10 minutes in this market right now.

    ReplyDelete
  181. UKDNYApril 26, 2012 at 1:11 AM

    Flats usually occur in 4th position, & in a bear market (assumed) when the last 5 wv stroke up is done, (just a bit higher than the 'a' wv), the nex tmove is down in 5wvs (impulse) to the bottom of that structure. Then there is a bounce, in a wv 1 to about 40-62%. Hope that helps.. :)

    ReplyDelete
  182. UKDNYApril 26, 2012 at 1:13 AM

    yep, in a bear market they end up as a 5wv stroke up just higher than the 'a' wv top (usually) then the move is down in a 5wv impulse, every time.

    ReplyDelete
  183. NostradumassApril 26, 2012 at 1:17 AM

    From a completely pseudo-philosophic standpoint...how the heck can an economic system continue to be an ongoing concern when it is judged "positively" by the potential for debasement of its underlying currency?...or am I just completely misunderstanding the whole thing (which is always possible).

    ReplyDelete
  184. UKDNYApril 26, 2012 at 1:20 AM

    did that overnight no problem in SPX and INDU, so today you should see the 'proper' market do the same and then whoooosh.

    ReplyDelete
  185. UKDNYApril 26, 2012 at 1:22 AM

    Overnight SG1..

    ReplyDelete
  186. DirtnRockGuy62April 26, 2012 at 1:24 AM

    It does and thanks very much Kind Sir.....  See ya later in the day, gotta get ready to go to work

    ReplyDelete
  187. UKDNYApril 26, 2012 at 1:24 AM

    Overnight .. B_E

    ReplyDelete
  188. DirtnRockGuy62April 26, 2012 at 1:25 AM

    Thanks man - really appreciate you popping in here while handling all else.  Hope everything and everyone is doing better on your end.

    ReplyDelete
  189. DirtnRockGuy62April 26, 2012 at 1:26 AM

    I'll take Non-Liquidity Based Markets that behave......

    ReplyDelete
  190. DirtnRockGuy62April 26, 2012 at 1:27 AM

    much appreciated

    ReplyDelete
  191. NostradumassApril 26, 2012 at 1:29 AM

    I'm probably letting my repressed bias get in the way of my thinking, but yesterday's market behavior just seemed "wrong". Like a suckers rally...dunno.

    ReplyDelete
  192. katzo7April 26, 2012 at 1:38 AM

    That is text book with the throw-over.

    ReplyDelete
  193. NostradumassApril 26, 2012 at 1:38 AM

    ...for 1,000,000

    ReplyDelete
  194. katzo7April 26, 2012 at 1:49 AM

    EW4 just was put it at 86+ area, EW5 tgt 82.50 to .75. If 82 breaks then my T3 comes into view.

    ReplyDelete
  195. NostradumassApril 26, 2012 at 1:56 AM

    You forgot to break out the magnifying glass for the ants. But you should consider a kilowatt of solar panels as backup for the absolute necessities. Even our cell towers were out last time we had a power outage for 5 days.

    ReplyDelete
  196. katzo7April 26, 2012 at 1:57 AM

    Because of the up sloping channel this is the dynamic I said yesterday, ere is an upsloping channel, short at 87-8 but cover and buy at 82 now
    EDIT: This will work until it does not, at some point it will break 81 (and my 80.25) or break 88, then it will keep on going

    It is extending out of the channel on both sides (a megaphone pattern) to about 3 ES points 93-4 up side now, to 82-3 downside). This is where the mrkt finally 'shakes itself to death' in the megaphone pattern (expanding triangle) and many get hurt. Levels where to buy and sell and cover for ST players have to be spot on. Or step aside.

    ReplyDelete
  197. Whip_sawedApril 26, 2012 at 2:05 AM

    Pretzel, may the peace of the Lord that passes all understanding descend upon you and your family by the fragrance laden Hawaii breezes.  You have our continued well wishes and support.

    Off to work...good trading everybody.

    whip

    ReplyDelete
  198. UKDNYApril 26, 2012 at 2:12 AM

    Have you guys got Banks like Barclays? Recent scam is to sell £1m hedging instruments to shop owners who can't speak English to cover a loan, to protect against interest rate moves. They then manipulate LIBOR  to trigger penalties on the hedge, resulting in massive penalty payments equal to a large fraction of the Loan and even larger penalties if those with the loan want to pay off earlier. Being sued as we speak, lots coming out from the woodwork. Excellent. This is the Bank with 2 Branches in the UK and 2,600 (you read that right) subsidiaries in the Cayman Islands, in that building the size of a duplex I mentioned before. (I love the Caymans, best Caribbean island. Period. IMHO) Bankers eh? Don't you just love 'em?

    ReplyDelete
  199. NostradumassApril 26, 2012 at 2:13 AM

    VIX is chirping.

    ReplyDelete
  200. UKDNYApril 26, 2012 at 2:15 AM

    Keep reading the Rorschach charts Nostra, that'll straighten you out in no time :) 

    ReplyDelete

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