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Wednesday, March 14, 2012

SPX Update: That About Sums It Up...

Well, yesterday cleared up the counts quite nicely.  The bullish trade trigger at 1374 elected and from there, the market pretty much traded straight up with zero drawdown.  That trigger targets 1408. 

We now have solid confirmation that wave (iv) did indeed complete at 1340.  Preliminary targets for (v) are 1432-1465. 

The dollar also rallied yesterday, proving once again that markets aren't always correlated.

Straight to the charts.  Since everything has clarified, I can project some likely target zones for each wave.  First the 5-minute chart, and the probable target for blue wave 3.


Next the 30-minute chart, for context and the larger wave (v) targets.  If you'll note the RSI momentum has exceeded any so far produced by this rally.  Those looking to short would be advised to take a step back and wait -- moves almost never reverse significantly without first building a momentum divergence.  A divergence exists when prices make new highs, but momentum fails to exceed its old high.  Currently, no divergence exists, which makes higher prices extremely likely.


Next, a couple of Bollinger band charts; one of the SPX, and one of the VIX.  SPX closed outside its upper Bollinger band, which doesn't happen too often; and VIX closed outside its lower.  These signals often indicate that an intermediate top is getting closer.  Once again, I do not expect an immediate top here by any stretch -- I expect higher prices first.



In conclusion, the move appears pretty straightforward, and while not exactly "anticipated," since the signals were a bit conflicted, it's not at all unexpected either.  Once the bullish trade trigger elected, the market declared its intentions and was off to the races without looking back. 

I expect higher prices over the near term, though there should be some 4th wave sideways/down corrections along the way.  The market's next significant turn is unlikely to come until at least the mid-1400's.  After wave 3 completes, targets will become more accurate.  My SWAG right now is 1440.  Trade safe.
Posted by PretzelLogic at 1:53 AM

385 comments:

  1. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 1:55 AM

    Good morning.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. FurrrrMarch 14, 2012 at 2:00 AM

    morning, PL.  Nice snorkel pics.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Phoenix58March 14, 2012 at 2:08 AM

    Good evening - great work PL. Thanks.

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  4. JuiceBoxBoyMarch 14, 2012 at 2:08 AM

    Pretzel, pardon my ignorance, but what does SWAG mean?  What would your timeframe be for 1440?  Thanks!

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  5. matsteryMarch 14, 2012 at 2:09 AM

     Scientific Wild-Ass Guess

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  6. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 2:10 AM

    ty

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  7. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 2:11 AM

    Thanks, Phoenix.

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  8. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 2:15 AM

    some wild ass guess

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  9. rescatorMarch 14, 2012 at 2:15 AM

    Out of control this market is...the same thing will happen in the downside...purely and simply because of an inflated liquidity driven bubble...I don't see limit and target to the upside till the day a big hammer will fall on the house of cards...Anytime...

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  10. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 2:20 AM

    I would guess over the next couple weeks to a month, but I don't usually do time frames.  Price rules all, IMO. 

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  11. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 2:26 AM

    This is correct.  :)

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  12. JuiceBoxBoyMarch 14, 2012 at 2:29 AM

     Thanks for explaining, that is pretty funny. 

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  13. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 2:30 AM

    Low in eur/$$ is 1,3029, it is headed down again, a bit all over the place today, at 1,3052, not far from LOD

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  14. Christian GustafsonMarch 14, 2012 at 2:33 AM

    1340 + (1267 - 1158) = 1449
    1340 + (1267 - 1158) * .618 = 1407

    ReplyDelete
  15. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 2:37 AM

    Dumb question but, what happens if I click the "i'm a troll" checkmark button?

    ReplyDelete
  16. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 2:39 AM

    You will start using a FLUX program and invent the Super8. Oh wait, never mind.

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  17. t_winnMarch 14, 2012 at 2:45 AM

    In addition to the above targets, it's also possible to have:

    1340 + (1267 - 1158) * 1.618 = 1516

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  18. CCAvatarMarch 14, 2012 at 2:47 AM

    Eyebrows are going up as well as the prices.

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  19. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 2:48 AM

    Awesome...HS Pretzaman...I'm goin' long...prepare for meltdown in 3....2....

    ReplyDelete
  20. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 2:55 AM

    Your head explodes.  That's how I've been limiting the troll population.  BWAAAHAHAHAHA!

    ReplyDelete
  21. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 2:56 AM

    I do sometimes use only EW formulas, but I use other things as well when arriving at targets.  :)

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  22. soulsurferusaMarch 14, 2012 at 2:59 AM

    morning PL! good stuff! I am going long on any dip. 

    ReplyDelete
  23. CCAvatarMarch 14, 2012 at 3:01 AM

    That's funny, but too true to the trading world. Expect the unexpected.

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  24. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 3:06 AM

    lol

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  25. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 3:15 AM

    Dollar trying to get something going here... needs to break 80.8 first...

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  26. Bob_EMarch 14, 2012 at 3:23 AM

    Thank you for your guidance PL. You're like an air traffic controller, or eye in the sky for us neophytes.

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  27. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 3:23 AM

    Weird having the market open at 3:30 a.m. again.  It's much better at this hour, I'm still half-awake instead of bleeding from my eyeballs.  Just have to get used to having an hour less each day to get things ready.

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  28. Mnykn9March 14, 2012 at 3:26 AM

    Good morning PL, thank you for your time and commitment, great work, one question, is the green count from yesterday's post still in play, if so what are the odds and what spx price would nullify it, yesterday I believe you stated "b" go as high as 1393 would yesterday's close 1395.95 be too high? TIA

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  29. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 3:27 AM

    Seriously, maybe AR clicked that button by accident one day, and then was forever more cursed wth Disqus zaps. Very interesting feature.

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  30. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 3:33 AM

    Green count is out.  Rally's way too strong for a b-wave, and has retraced too much of a.

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  31. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 3:37 AM

    My usual shift was 3am-3pm....it's the best of both worlds for getting things done except that you really learn to appreciate sleep.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 3:40 AM

    Strong Super8 bearish signal.

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  33. CCAvatarMarch 14, 2012 at 3:42 AM

    What is that?

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  34. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 3:44 AM

    I posted the details yesterday. Do you subscribe to updates via email?

    ReplyDelete
  35. CCAvatarMarch 14, 2012 at 3:45 AM

    No, it would be too much clutter. I will read yesterday's thread. I hope PL gets a new discussion format that's easier to navigate. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 3:48 AM

    RE clutter - I use a distinct email account for this stuff, then just delete the hundreds of email at the end of the day.

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  37. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 3:49 AM

    So try to get a good price to short before 10:00, then turn around and go long at 10:52. Not trading advice of course.

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  38. Authentic1March 14, 2012 at 3:52 AM

    AAPL headed for 600 today?

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  39. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 3:54 AM

    Trading DX is *not* for the faint of heart last night/today.  I've managed to limit myself to a small loss, but it's been whipsaw city.

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  40. sandyone44March 14, 2012 at 3:55 AM

     good morning. i'm trying out the inflight internet also heading home to
    LAX..  is it true that  Tvix n UVXY is not pointing straight down ??  nerves perking up as market pumps up. ?  i must be getting lack of oxygen..  :)  will see how day goes..  battery getting low :(      good luck everyone

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  41. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 3:57 AM

    Probably straight sideways from here. See 2/9 for analogy.

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  42. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 3:57 AM

    TVIX has bounced back up to 13.77.

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  43. AlbertMarch 14, 2012 at 4:03 AM

     AAPL is on fire on rumors of iTV. AAPL's Chinese contractors inadvertently gave a jaw-dropping preview of the eye-popping gadget. It is going to be another blockbuster.

    ReplyDelete
  44. frannybrdMarch 14, 2012 at 4:03 AM

    And all along I thought it was the boxes of ritzy promo goodies that he picked up at the Oscars!
    $-)

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  45. sandyone44March 14, 2012 at 4:04 AM

     indeed..  it has some fight..  Anyone able to pull up yesterdays short data on TVIX and UVXY ?  the volume was insane . thanks in advance..

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  46. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 4:08 AM

    TVIX up ~2%
    UVXY negative
    That TVIX premium is something else

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  47. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 4:08 AM

    Jaw dropped, eye popped ... I need a doctor. LMAO

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  48. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 4:09 AM

    GL to you too

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  49. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 4:10 AM

    Super8 is showing reversal. Get out the short and go long immediately. Not trading advice.

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  50. Curiousmind3861March 14, 2012 at 4:10 AM

    The short interest on both TVIX and UVXY have increased significantly, esp. for UVXY. Looking at the info on Barrons.com, which update the short interest every month. By the end of Feb, short interest on UVXY has increased by over 600% and 100% for TVIX (4 Million shares were sold short) I can only imagine that number is even higher now. The day of short squeeze will come, and revenge will be sweet. Those guys have been riding an easy wave since Oct.

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  51. AlbertMarch 14, 2012 at 4:12 AM

     Not sure if they will use the iTV, which has a bad rap. The new Apple TV is entirely different and game changing. AAPL's Chinese manufacturers are gearing up for Christmas unveiling.

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  52. Clayton233March 14, 2012 at 4:12 AM

    Great post as always PL.  

    Any veterans out there watching the RUT or SLV?  Curious if the recent action has changed the last set of targets.  The RUT hit an all time high last year so there seems to be a lot of resistance to go much higher.  I'm very new to EW so I'm trying to find a target to get out of some long IWM.  Thanks

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  53. sandyone44March 14, 2012 at 4:27 AM

     thanks..  c38

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  54. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 4:28 AM

    That explains it. Thank you

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  55. sandyone44March 14, 2012 at 4:30 AM

    contango is a pounding..  futures are extremely high as from the cash vix.. big bets being played on both sides.. Jamie T. is back..  i need to study this when i get home.. battery gone.. thanks PL for great charts

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjTzN8lUQyU&feature=plcp&context=C4d13939VDvjVQa1PpcFP8gF6YbVbpVy4YB9mvfz9U3bbEUuLtU7s%3D

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  56. luisvssilverMarch 14, 2012 at 4:35 AM

    SLV has a head and shoulders formation with $33.50 for right and left shoulders and $36.44 for the head which projects to $27.62.   ZSL which is the double inverse of SLV shows a cup and handle formation with spread triple top breakout at $ 10.57

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  57. SpikerJMarch 14, 2012 at 4:38 AM

    Interesting, and somewhat technical/nerdy note on leading vs lagging indicators from John Hussman.  (It was posted Monday and I have only now gotten around to reading it.  Hope I am not doubling up this info from someone else):

    "..given the deterioration in the inferred (leading) economic condition between
    October and December, it follows that we would expect to see a clear
    deterioration in observable (lagging) economic variables over the next 8-12 weeks.  The preliminary expectation would be for
    continued positive payroll growth in March (roughly 50,000-70,000 jobs)
    and a shift to net job losses in April."

    http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120312.htm

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  58. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 4:40 AM

    Pretty sure Uncle Buck is on the verge of completing an ending diagonal.  Could be a larger correction coming soon...

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  59. JuiceBoxBoyMarch 14, 2012 at 4:41 AM

     Pardon my ignorance Dust Devil, but what are you referring to when you mention 'Super8'?

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  60. Authentic1March 14, 2012 at 4:41 AM

    Thanks for this, sandyone44.

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  61. KB03March 14, 2012 at 4:43 AM

    Another great post PL - it seems redundant to say each day, but your calls have been spot on - "BLUE BOXES" anyone!

    Couple things I'm watching pretty close with respect to gold - surprise, surprise:
    1. Either decoupling from equities here or pointing the way down - leaning toward a decoupling and deep correction but time will tell.
    2. First "crude" chart is of gold over the past 4 years. Gold seems to be following the path of the 34% correction back in 2008. That test of the 300 day average back in December, seems to indicate a retest of at least the 300 MA - so a date with $1600 could be in order. A convincing break there and Wowza!
    3. Another chart is the ole' Dow/Gold ratio from the past 12 year bull run. what strikes me is that over this time as the ratio has been ratcheting down, the bounces up from lows have only violated the previous bounce back by very miniscule amounts. I say this as we sit out about 7.85 (a close at the current levels would push that level closer to 8) and the previous daily high close on the last rebound from lows was 7.94. I would maybe give it 'til a slight tick above 8.00 and then something has to give. As a bull gold nuthead this certainly raises an eyebrow here.
    4. And finally (I know you guys are happy) is a long term Dow/Gold chart. I strongly still believe that the gold bull is not over - however, this does not mean we aren't due a correction back to the healthy trendline (circa 1974-1976) before a larger gold run or who knows, maybe it'll end - say it ain't so!

    Anyway, thanks for indulging my craziness here, not really making any conclusions merely saying that my interest get perked up at these levels. 

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  62. rescatorMarch 14, 2012 at 4:44 AM

    Apple is now bigger than the entire Us retail sector.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/its-official-apple-now-bigger-entire-us-retail-sector

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  63. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 4:45 AM

    Very interesting piece. Thanks for pointing this out.

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  64. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 4:46 AM

    jbg, I remember you saying you had some UUP.  Might want to watch that carefully here.  If the dollar can't hold onto 80.50, watch out for a fast trip back to at least 79.50ish.  It's just off the high for the move, but I think that *might* be it for now.  If it can create a material break of that high, all bets are off, but I'm thinking ending diagonal 5th wave here, prolly all done now.

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  65. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 4:52 AM

    I posted the details yesterday. Do you subscribe to updates via email?

    ReplyDelete
  66. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 4:59 AM

    ty KB03.  I don't mind hearing nice things "redundantly."  :)

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  67. Clayton233March 14, 2012 at 5:01 AM

    thanks for the insight, I think I'll hold onto my long APR 12 SLV 30 puts a little longer then.

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  68. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 5:04 AM

    Super8 is breaish and since it's past 10:52, time to quit long and go short at ES 1389. Got whipsawed there.

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  69. billabusterMarch 14, 2012 at 5:06 AM

    indeed. as said a couple of weeks ago
    "death cross looms on gld. needs to get BELOW 200 day tho. nice 3 year ride of goldie cross


     http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03127724593

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  70. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 5:06 AM

    Well, scratch that.  :) 

    Something else going on.

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  71. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 5:07 AM

    AAPL

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/5d432d66-5aeb-4382-b325-da1e574cd566

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  72. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 5:07 AM

    Thanks PL. I will watch.

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  73. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 5:07 AM

    TVIX up 5%, $VIX up .61%

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  74. FaceshotMarch 14, 2012 at 5:09 AM

    I went long UUP as well. I see UUP that it had bounced off the 50 SMA (resistance) on 2/6 and 3/7 (pretty much spot on). Broke through on 3/9. The SMA is now 22.19, current UUP at 22.40. Im thinking of putting in a stop loss at 22.15, in case the 50 SMA acts as support. I realize UUP is a derivative of DXY and using the 50 SMA is pretty simple analysis, but the market did respect the correlated DXY price as resistance twice since mid Feb, so Im thinking this could be a good way to let the position run, but get out virtually even .

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  75. Curiousmind3861March 14, 2012 at 5:15 AM

    do you mean DXY can rally past 80.5 now? :)

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  76. Curiousmind3861March 14, 2012 at 5:16 AM

    What do you think is the target for this gold correction? 

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  77. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 5:16 AM

    :) 

    I see you didn't test to see if your head would explode.  :D

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  78. JuiceBoxBoyMarch 14, 2012 at 5:17 AM

     No, I've been reading Pretzels daily post for a while, but never read any of the comments until yesterday and today.  Thanks.

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  79. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 5:18 AM

     Elaborate....

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  80. luisvssilverMarch 14, 2012 at 5:18 AM

    .... Look at that S car go.... I mean ... Look at that SLV go..... down to 31.66 as I write...

    ReplyDelete
  81. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 5:19 AM

    If not, it's a nest of 1's and 2's.  Very difficult to get a read on at the moment.

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  82. Bob_EMarch 14, 2012 at 5:26 AM

    PL...I am amazed at the accuracy of EW analysis and principles. Citigroup's first wave down bottomed at $36.76 on June 8, 2011. The third wave down bottomed at $21.40 on October 4, 2011 and now this fourth wave ascent has topped out (at this time) at $37.72 yesterday....four cents away from a violation of the first wave extreme. It's like the wizard behind the curtain.

    ReplyDelete
  83. FurrrrMarch 14, 2012 at 5:27 AM

    Astro $.02
    Mercury retrograde:  Fakeouts - TA is inaccurate due to inherent faulty assumptions.

    ReplyDelete
  84. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 5:31 AM

    Eur/$$ banging away at the level I mentioned in last thread, 1,3029 LOD It is at 1,3028 now

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  85. KB03March 14, 2012 at 5:34 AM

    300 MA @ $1600 - after that we'll see where she goes. I hold no ST position either way for now though

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  86. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 5:36 AM

    That is certainly working in the dollar very short term.  :)

    How about this for a monkey wrench?  What if the wave labeled as red 3 is actually wave 5 of an extended fifth wave?  i.e.- yesterday's labels were correct and the little dip *was* wave 4?  That would really screw everything up.  :)

    btw, the decline *does* look impulsive, so there *should* be another leg down after a bounce... unless Mercury is messing with me there too.  :D

    ReplyDelete
  87. KB03March 14, 2012 at 5:38 AM

    Come on guys and gals, let's push these page views to the 1,000,000 mark - PL has promised a full day of "free" access to his work once it's hit! What a great guy ; )

    ReplyDelete
  88. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 5:42 AM

    *If* the dollar can hold this breakout, then it could be off to the races.  A nest of 1's and 2's can sometimes look like an ending diagonal.

    ReplyDelete
  89. FurrrrMarch 14, 2012 at 5:43 AM

    Now you're talking.  I thought we had a full five finish this morning.  

    ReplyDelete
  90. Curiousmind3861March 14, 2012 at 5:48 AM

    Do you see it going below 1.3 soon? or even 1.2? :)

    ReplyDelete
  91. Curiousmind3861March 14, 2012 at 5:50 AM

    UVXY up more than TVIX due to the premium. Whoever picked this up at 23.7ish this morning is smiling now. 

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  92. Curiousmind3861March 14, 2012 at 5:50 AM

    whole number tends to be psychological support also, right?

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  93. Authentic1March 14, 2012 at 5:51 AM

    Are PL and you referring to the dollar or SPX?

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  94. billabusterMarch 14, 2012 at 5:51 AM

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opinion/why-i-am-leaving-goldman-sachs.html

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  95. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 5:53 AM

    SPX

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  96. Bob_EMarch 14, 2012 at 5:53 AM

    PL...based on a previous discussion with you regarding 30 year T-Bond futures.....the measured upside move of $155 would be removed at what breech of the current triangle? Wave a low, or violation of the bottom trendline of the triangle?

    ReplyDelete
  97. RockRMarch 14, 2012 at 5:55 AM

    Shocker?  NO!  Someone tells what we have all suspected and he will get madee into a trouble maker.
    Neede more people with balls!

    ReplyDelete
  98. billabusterMarch 14, 2012 at 5:55 AM

    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/3/14/vix-below-15-time-to-worry.html

    ReplyDelete
  99. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 5:55 AM

    In a true Elliott triangle, wave e should never break wave a.  So a break of the wave a low would indicate it wasn't a triangle, thus all bets would be off.

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  100. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 5:59 AM

    Re: second chart from yesterday....so you are saying that yesterday's action was red (v) -- all the way in the upper right corner?

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  101. Authentic1March 14, 2012 at 6:00 AM

    This is excellent.  Thanks for posting.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Bob_EMarch 14, 2012 at 6:00 AM

    Dually noted...thanks. $133.00 (+/-) it is.

    ReplyDelete
  103. RockRMarch 14, 2012 at 6:01 AM

    Some how able to get back to -1.6 after holding shorts for 2 days.  Went long and almost back to BE.
    Serious stress out just to be BE.  My foggy cracked magic 8 ball says 1407-8 tops out then turn begins.
    CNBC reported possible power struggle in China, nothing concrete but Commies nervous.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Authentic1March 14, 2012 at 6:02 AM

    Thank you.  This is excellent.  

    If this is what they do to their clients, think about what they do to the public at large through their market making and trading desks.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 6:03 AM

    NO, I'm not "saying" that.  I'm saying it isn't completely impossible, and was doing a "what if?" to go with Furr's idea that things wouldn't be what they seem.  So it's within the realm of possibility, though unlikely.  Nothing's ever guaranteed in this market...

    ReplyDelete
  106. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 6:04 AM

     Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  107. FurrrrMarch 14, 2012 at 6:05 AM

    That's a big fat MAYBE, so don't go letting the horses out of the barn just yet.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Authentic1March 14, 2012 at 6:07 AM

    Greg Smith should be commended.  He should start his own asset management firm.

    ReplyDelete
  109. Authentic1March 14, 2012 at 6:07 AM

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  110. FurrrrMarch 14, 2012 at 6:07 AM

    Whaddya think?

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  111. RockRMarch 14, 2012 at 6:08 AM

    PL,
    IS the 1407-08 area a possible top with EW?  Or do things not flow that way with recent move up?
    Thx

    ReplyDelete
  112. Bob_EMarch 14, 2012 at 6:09 AM

    PL...one last question today. I've heard the axiom "the flag flies at half mast" and it appears that GAZ is sporting such a flag. If the axiom is correct, does that suggest GAZ could double in price from it's current $5.00 ????

    ReplyDelete
  113. RockRMarch 14, 2012 at 6:12 AM

    Meaqns time for more Viagara!  Sorry, couldn't resist.

    ReplyDelete
  114. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 6:13 AM

    Already posted on last thread by Furrrr.

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  115. Whip_sawedMarch 14, 2012 at 6:13 AM

    Good afternoon all.  For those that follow RUT, it looks like IWM is testing a trendline of support

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  116. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 6:14 AM

    hard to say, watching it carefully

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  117. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 6:15 AM

    possible, I am watching the same thing, whether the EW1 and 2 goes in now

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  118. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 6:16 AM

     I'm not.....I'm 80% cash right now....horses are being groomed at present. I'm very calm. aaaouummmmm

    ReplyDelete
  119. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 6:17 AM

    Itz kool...just asking...just clarifying this feeble mind.

    ReplyDelete
  120. FurrrrMarch 14, 2012 at 6:18 AM

    thx - we should know soon
    But it does feel like I'm forcing that count a little - would still work better with one more push up.

    ReplyDelete
  121. Bob_EMarch 14, 2012 at 6:18 AM

    Big Jim and the twins share your sentiment!

    ReplyDelete
  122. FurrrrMarch 14, 2012 at 6:19 AM

    I'm not.  ; )

    ReplyDelete
  123. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 6:19 AM

    Nothing is impossible.  The counts I published are the most likely, given the available information in the price movement and indicators.  "Most likely" is always just that though.  If I have pocket aces against somebody holding 2-7 off-suit before the flop, I am "most likely" to win... but it doesn't guarantee I will.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  124. RockRMarch 14, 2012 at 6:20 AM

    Thanks.  Just sold my TF longs, +2, but looking to get back in.

    ReplyDelete
  125. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 6:20 AM

    He's welcome at my dinner table.

    ReplyDelete
  126. FurrrrMarch 14, 2012 at 6:20 AM

    thx.

    ReplyDelete
  127. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 6:22 AM

    GDX down 4%, wow.

    ReplyDelete
  128. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 6:25 AM

    No, it implies it could go to about 8.40.  You would use the price measurement of the first move and add it to the breakout point -- if you're trying to apply that particular axiom.  More conservatively, one would measure the triangle width (about 1.97 in that case) and add that to the breakout point for a target.

    ReplyDelete
  129. RockRMarch 14, 2012 at 6:26 AM

    I don't like my 2-7 but as Jim Carey said in Dumb and Dumber "so I might have a chance". 
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  130. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 6:28 AM

    watching for potential mid-afternoon down move, tgts 1380, then possibly 1371 ESM2

    ReplyDelete
  131. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 6:29 AM

    lol -- "So you're saying I've got a chance!"

    ReplyDelete
  132. Bob_EMarch 14, 2012 at 6:30 AM

    Thanks PL.....over and out!

    ReplyDelete
  133. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 6:32 AM

    Yep, pretty much as enigmatic as Uncle Buck right now, just in reverse.

    ReplyDelete
  134. KB03March 14, 2012 at 6:33 AM

    Didn't have the guts to stick with my short there - oh well, initial target was reached, move on soldier!

    ReplyDelete
  135. KB03March 14, 2012 at 6:36 AM

    I would agree

    ReplyDelete
  136. RockRMarch 14, 2012 at 6:38 AM

    WHat you said.  I have only seen movie 50 times.

    ReplyDelete
  137. AlbertMarch 14, 2012 at 6:42 AM

    AAPL target price was up'ed by MS to 720 and maintained that it could hit 960. Weekly Calls are going to infinity.

    And beyond .... :)

    ReplyDelete
  138. Bamboozled1March 14, 2012 at 6:45 AM

    Hi Pretz,

    Thank you again for all your great work. Another great article. Was wondering what your take on SLV is given this morning's action. Until earlier this morning, I thought we were in wave 2 of 1, after the higher wave 2 completed at 31.5. Now it seems we may have just completed a double zig zag?? Not sure though; counting corrections is still quite a challenge for me. Any insight would be appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
  139. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 6:50 AM

    lol -- is mine actually right?  I've actually only seen it once.  Maybe one and a half times, if I watched it again on cable. 

    ReplyDelete
  140. Bob_EMarch 14, 2012 at 6:52 AM

    Analog of Silver...FYI

    ReplyDelete
  141. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 6:57 AM

    Silver looks pretty ugly at the moment.  If that head and shoulders works out, it could head a lot lower.

    ReplyDelete
  142. JimMarch 14, 2012 at 6:59 AM

    1380 cash?  or is that plus 6.5 for cash?

    ReplyDelete
  143. CalDMarch 14, 2012 at 7:00 AM

     That actually reminds me of something I've been meaning to ask someone. What's a good rule of thumb for when to move from one futures contract period to the next?

    ReplyDelete
  144. Lena_W3March 14, 2012 at 7:00 AM

    I was seven days to early with my bull run, but that movement - its inner structure - what we see now, is what I thought possible. And, it is like a weather ballon, up to the sky.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bluQ4eOeBwo

    right now it broke the clouds and some time it will go up... but then the ballon will burst and send the lego spaceship down again. But until then to da moon.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 7:08 AM

    There is a consensus date to roll over from the nearest to the next nearest contract. It is not mandatory, so really, there is not cast in stone rule. But for ES, it is the Friday before the expiration Friday, minus one day, so it's the Thursday. It rolls at the 8:30 Central Time session - in other words, it begins at that time - on that Thursday.

    ReplyDelete
  146. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 7:11 AM

    That was pretty cool...Thanks Lena

    ReplyDelete
  147. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 7:12 AM

    add +4 points to my ES for cash

    ReplyDelete
  148. DaveMarch 14, 2012 at 7:18 AM

    My son came in and saw this... guess what I get to do this weekend. Downside... I have to find one of those balloons... upside, it will clear some of the Lego's out of the house!

    ReplyDelete
  149. JuanMarch 14, 2012 at 7:18 AM

    That would hit your 61.8% retracement, right?

    ReplyDelete
  150. Jump3March 14, 2012 at 7:19 AM

    Why I am Leaving The Empire

     http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/why-i-am-leaving-the-empire%252c-by-darth-vader-201203145007/

    Joe

    ReplyDelete
  151. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 7:24 AM

    Prolly break it.

    ReplyDelete
  152. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 7:25 AM

    Excellent idea....can I send ya some.

    ReplyDelete
  153. CalDMarch 14, 2012 at 7:28 AM

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  154. billabusterMarch 14, 2012 at 7:29 AM

    ty

    ReplyDelete
  155. Pretzel LogicMarch 14, 2012 at 7:33 AM

    Alright, time for me to get some rest.  All work and no sleep makes Pretzel a dull boy.

    GL all.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  156. FurrrrMarch 14, 2012 at 7:33 AM

    Thx, needed the perspective  :)

    ReplyDelete
  157. billabusterMarch 14, 2012 at 7:40 AM

    aapl parabolic spx parabolic.  no crack, no short

    ReplyDelete
  158. AlbertMarch 14, 2012 at 7:43 AM

    Doing God's work? :)

    ReplyDelete
  159. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 7:44 AM

    this might be the start of the mid aft. move down (ST) I mentioned earlier. truly, it came so fast and without the help of my usual indicators I missed it.
    a break of 89 breaks some ST up waves

    ReplyDelete
  160. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 7:53 AM

    you are now removing/altering your posts, you took out no break, no short?

    ReplyDelete
  161. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 7:57 AM

    next drop setting up.....

    ReplyDelete
  162. billabusterMarch 14, 2012 at 7:59 AM

    adding chart with explanation. no sinister motive. dont care what happens today or tomorrie. trend is what im talkin bout. too much bruce spingsteen im seeing

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZarmRLa2p9Q

    ReplyDelete
  163. FurrrrMarch 14, 2012 at 8:02 AM

    Are you thinking abc for a iv or more, katz?

    ReplyDelete
  164. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 8:03 AM

    dunno yet

    ReplyDelete
  165. davezarlingMarch 14, 2012 at 8:04 AM

    "Our pets heads are falling off!"

    ReplyDelete
  166. billabusterMarch 14, 2012 at 8:04 AM

    i just put up my explanation WHICH YOU JUST DELETED>  U DONT SEEM TPO LIKE MY BULLISH CALLS IT SEEMS

    ReplyDelete
  167. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 8:05 AM

    previous post "watching for potential mid-afternoon down move, tgts 1380, then possibly 1371 ESM2" plus perfectly timed contrarian call.

    eur/$$ getting back into alignment, watch that for clues

    ReplyDelete
  168. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 8:08 AM

    It has nothing to do with bullish calls, it has to do with ethical unabridged comments changed to alter comments, hiding wrong posts.

    ReplyDelete
  169. billabusterMarch 14, 2012 at 8:14 AM

    how am i editing my post 3 minutes after i make it to add a chart and explanation. ok thanks for the moderation. u can accuse me of something and i cant rebutt. i will just post when mr. pretzeldent is awake. he is fair and balanced. gluck

    ReplyDelete
  170. RockyTopGunnerMarch 14, 2012 at 8:15 AM

    ugh, I finally decide to put stops on my shorts after the morning drop, come back to the computer and see them triggered followed by the market dropping back down. Its like everytime i set stops, they're like magnets for the market.

    ReplyDelete
  171. billabusterMarch 14, 2012 at 8:21 AM

    yup buy any dip to 1380. gluck.

    ReplyDelete
  172. Authentic1March 14, 2012 at 8:24 AM

    Long 1 ES at 85.5, Stop at 84

    ReplyDelete
  173. Authentic1March 14, 2012 at 8:28 AM

    Stop moved to 84.5

    ReplyDelete
  174. frannybrdMarch 14, 2012 at 8:28 AM

    They're on to you...

    ReplyDelete
  175. frannybrdMarch 14, 2012 at 8:29 AM

    Where mah yacht at? Oh, dat's right - it's in the shop.

    ReplyDelete
  176. billabusterMarch 14, 2012 at 8:30 AM

    no crack no short. or in simple terms. buy the dip. if you ask a ? please let me rebut ty

    ReplyDelete
  177. Authentic1March 14, 2012 at 8:34 AM

    Out of long ES, at 86.5 , VIX looks to want to go higher...

    ReplyDelete
  178. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 8:35 AM

    careful, if this cannot get above 89 it might break down suddenly

    ReplyDelete
  179. Authentic1March 14, 2012 at 8:37 AM

    I am already out.  I don't like the way the VIX or VXX is acting.

    ReplyDelete
  180. Curiousmind3861March 14, 2012 at 8:40 AM

    was away and saw AAPL went parabolic almost hit 600, now on its way down, is it the final blowoff top, or more upside to come? UVXY is all over the place today, 15 cents move in seconds. Shorts are covering for sure. It is up 2 times more than TVIX, well to be fair, when it was down it was sometimes more than 2 times TVIX too.... Let's see if it can get to $27 today.

    ReplyDelete
  181. billabusterMarch 14, 2012 at 8:45 AM

    retrace to 1370's is healthy for bull

    ReplyDelete
  182. Curiousmind3861March 14, 2012 at 8:46 AM

    If we don't have a stock crash soon, the bond market might crash first....dilemma dilemma for the FED, I guess you just cannot have both ways, thought they should have known this long time ago.

    ReplyDelete
  183. billabusterMarch 14, 2012 at 8:48 AM

    aapl quad witch

    ReplyDelete
  184. CalDMarch 14, 2012 at 8:59 AM

    Thanks DD.

    ReplyDelete
  185. t_winnMarch 14, 2012 at 9:02 AM

    Yes, I'm  watching TLT.   Just hit 111.   Below 110, in danger zone.  Below 105, here we go!

    ReplyDelete
  186. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 9:05 AM

    tgt 80, then maybe 71 es

    ReplyDelete
  187. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 9:17 AM

    Furrrr, this is based on your 1 minute chart with my yellow line showing about when you posted. This is what I was looking at. IMO the 1 minute will throw you curves, I like the 3 or 5 minute better. It tells a better story. Just trying to help.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/69e26692-6842-4a61-a599-83cb1d42c37c

    ReplyDelete
  188. jbg1911March 14, 2012 at 9:22 AM

    I just picked up a bit of TBT

    ReplyDelete
  189. FurrrrMarch 14, 2012 at 9:25 AM

    Thanks.  I agree - I usually back out and look at 3 and 5 minute because the pattern becomes more "obvious." 
    I was charting the 1 minute because that's what PL uses to capture those small five wave moves for the 1 wave etc.

     

    ReplyDelete
  190. Authentic1March 14, 2012 at 9:29 AM

    If the economy is "said" to be improving and downside risks are "said" to be solved, isn't it normal that bonds would sell off as everyone searches for growth in stocks?  What is normal?  What constitutes a crash?

    ReplyDelete
  191. giarcMarch 14, 2012 at 9:44 AM

     Is this what you mean by SPX going parabolic?

    ReplyDelete
  192. katzo7March 14, 2012 at 9:48 AM

    doesn't look parabolic to me.

    ReplyDelete
  193. t_winnMarch 14, 2012 at 9:51 AM

    Usually it takes TLT a long time to move 5 points.   However, TLT has dropped 5 points since Monday this week.

    IMHO, with the Greek default / CDS triggering last week, banks have been dumping PIIGS debts along with other government debts like Treasuries.  They need to recapitalize to absorb the losses on Greek debts and to position for potential losses with the rest of the PIIGS debts.

    ReplyDelete
  194. t_winnMarch 14, 2012 at 10:02 AM

    Usually, during the first leg of the bond market decline, money will be rotated into other assets like stocks.   But during the next leg of the decline,  people would tend to sell off everything.   Take a look at the bond market crash of 1994 and you'll see that relationship with stocks and gold.

    If & when the bond market crashes a modest 20%-25%, it involves a huge amount of money because it's about 4x-5x larger than the stock market.  If it's gonna crash this time, the negative impact may be unpredictable because interest rate is practically at zero and therefore there is no room for soft-landing the crash.

    ReplyDelete
  195. Whoa_NellieMarch 14, 2012 at 10:08 AM

    Wow, don't watch the market for a day and it goes crazy.  I am opening small long IT position to capture rest of wave (v), will add more in coming days/weeks.  We will see spx 1430 before we see 1360.

    Am still short Eur, think that is a good IT/LT trade, Eur/USD will be 1.20 in a year, if not sooner.  Europe way sicker than USA, even if Greece / Portugal manage to stay in Euro.

    All is IMO, not trading advice.

    ReplyDelete
  196. RobMarch 14, 2012 at 10:13 AM

    Looks like PL's second chart bounced off red wave 4, which would mean more upside to come tomorrow...

    ReplyDelete
  197. Authentic1March 14, 2012 at 10:13 AM

    AAPL is in FULL parabolic mode.  600 seems likely for tomorrow.  The question is what happens then?

    ReplyDelete
  198. Dust DevilMarch 14, 2012 at 10:17 AM

    That's great! The sooner it flies and crashes, the better for all of us. I want it to crash by April. Then, everybody will be scared and stop losses will be triggered everywhere.

    ReplyDelete
  199. Authentic1March 14, 2012 at 10:19 AM

    I know that there are several currency traders here...  Is anyone watching or profiting from the huge down move on the Yen?  Seems way too late to try anything there.   I don't trade currencies, and I am just watching and learning.

    ReplyDelete
  200. Curiousmind3861March 14, 2012 at 10:20 AM

    I agree with t_winn from below. The problem with bonds is that US has 15.5+ TRILLION of them, a 1% increase in rate will mean at least 150 billion MORE to just pay the interest. For the banks who bought treasuries during QE1 or QE2, they are sitting on profits, IMO, so when they see the need to recapitalize, those are the first one to go.

    ReplyDelete

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