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Saturday, January 28, 2012

Something for the Trolls to Choke On -- Back-testing Pretzel's Calls

Every now and then, when they run out of gravel to chew on, trolls stop by and harass me about random things.  As a result, I’ve decided to put together an unbiased back-test of my calls going back to when I first launched this site, in early September of 2011. 

Now, this summary makes one assumption: it assumes that the person reading the projections is making good trade decisions.  For example: taking profit in a target zone when the potential exists for a big move against one's position, as opposed to just holding and (greedily?) hoping for more profit.  It also assumes that stop losses are being used, as suggested by KO levels, or in the body of the articles.

It also assumes that the reader is not abusing leverage and trading instruments like OTM (out of the money) options, which, for many traders, are the equivalent of playing the lottery.  Triple inverse funds would be a close second, and both these vehicles should only be utilized by expert traders.  The majority of traders using instruments like these will lose money, it's just a question of how much and when.
To summarize results, I assumed an active trading style and a $10,000 “hypothetical account,” using one ES (E-mini S&P 500) futures contract at $50 per point.

In each case, I chose the least aggressive target for profit taking.  For example, on a short trade, if the short was suggested at SPX 1200 and the target zone was 1140-1160, I used 1160 as the point of profit taking, regardless of whether the market went lower into the zone (for more theoretical profit) or not.  I used KO levels (knockout levels for the preferred count) as the stop loss levels.

In several instances, I did not use all the “in-between” trading which, for an active trader, could have yielded a higher return.  For example, during the December decline, an active trader could have picked up additional profit by jumping in and out as target zones were reached. I have also not bothered to include things like the DAX and BKX profits in the results summary, though some are mentioned.  These would add additional profits, but the results don’t need the additions.

I'm also skipping a lot of the daily commentary between the big swings, largely in the interest of time.  I'm quite certain without even checking that I didn't get every single daily call correct in the interim between bottoms and tops, and vice-versa.  I'm assuming neutrality of hits and misses for purposes of these numbers, and mainly tracking the bigger swings -- except for September, because September traded within a pretty narrow range.  

For documentation, I have provided links to each article, and a brief summary of the projections and their outcomes.  Below is the cumulative summary of all listed "hypothetical" trades combined:
620 points of profit
97 points of loss 

Over the course of less than 5 months, that’s a net of 523 points of profit. 

This equates to a return of $62,760 per year for $10,000 invested -- or 628% per year. 

So, all I have to say is… Troll THAT, buddy.  ;)  The results stand on their own. 

Especially when one considers that this hasn't been a trending market, but an up and down whipsaw market which has broken a lot of backs.

And now, of course, the obligatory disclaimer:

Disclaimer: The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including, but not limited to: forum comments by the author or other posters, articles and charts, advertisements, and everything else on this site, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The author may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or advertisement on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Calls:

September, 2011 
(Starting with September 4, 2011)
Predicted short term decline from 1177 to 1150.
HIT for 27 points profit
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/possible-count-on-es-futures.html

predicted DAX would head to 5100 from current level of 5319 HIT  219 points profit
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/can-dax-shed-light-on-spx.html

Predicted bounce from 1150 to 1185-1210 target zone target 1195 HIT 45 points profit
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/looks-like-possible-short-term-count.html

Two articles, which have to be taken together --predicted move from 1195 to 1101:
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/update-as-of-9-7-close.html
then at 1154, suggested market would bounce to 1174-1187: 
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/weekend-update-to-short-term-elliott.html
1195 to 1154 HIT = 41 points profit
1154 to 1174 HIT = 20 points profit

Suggested current wave may have more room to run on upside.  Position = flat
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/update-as-of-9-13-close.html

Suggested move from 1166 to 1145.  HIT = 21 point profit
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/cmon-bennie-lets-do-twist.html

1129-1140 HIT = 11 points profit.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/elliott-wave-update-9-22-11.html

1142-1155 HIT = 13 points profit.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/weekend-update-without-dennis-miller.html

1162-1101 HIT = 61 points profit.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/spx-update-9-26-11.html


Calling the October Bottom:

Nailed the October low, before and after it happened.  Instructed readers on what to watch for before hand.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx-update-10-3-11.html
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx-update-multi-month-counter-trend.html

I’m going to use the same qualifier of "what to watch for" described in the article above as the entry point – a move below and subsequent whipsaw back into the diagonal (that’s how I traded it, as well).  Thus, long positions taken at 1100 for ride to 1265 target HIT for 165 points.

Calling the October top:

Suggested rally would end shy of 1280 - MISS.  Suggested short entry at 1270 per chart… 1280 stop.  LOSS = 10 points.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx-and-ndx-updates-last-call-for-bears.html

Favored view that top was in, suggested using 1256 as key pivot for shorts.
Assuming 1256 short entry going forward.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx-and-ndx-update-new-key-levels-which.html

First target zone of 1196-1225 HIT.  Profit = 31 points.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx-and-ndx-update-bulls-running-out-of.html

Unsure on whether current wave was 2nd or 4th wave.  SPX at 1218.  Suggested target for 4th wave 1235-1254.  HIT = 17 point profit.  Suggested target for 2nd wave 1253-1277
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx-and-ndx-update-so-far-so-good-what.html

Preferred view became that the rally was a second wave, with a target of 1253-1277.  SPX trading at 1238, stop at 1226.97.  HIT for 15 points profit.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx-update-bulls-in-control-for-short.html

Suggested market was in topping/reversal zone, short SPX at 1261, stop loss at 1292.  Preliminary target for first leg of decline was 1140, later revised to 1140-1160.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx-and-ndx-update-retracement-rally.html


From that point there was a lot of up and down and hemming and hawing on the part of the market.  Nimble traders could have picked up additional points during all this, as new waves became apparent and target zones were posted.  For the sake of time, I’m going to skip ahead, though there was certainly more profit to be gained in the interim period that I’m skipping.

I'm going to post one article from that interim period, because I was particularly proud of this call.  This was back during the November “triangle” that every analyst on the planet was convinced was forming and thought that the market was soon to head higher.  To my knowledge, I was the only one calling for a reversal of the prior trend and a move lower out of the triangle (I’m sure I wasn’t the only one – the key phrase is “to my knowledge”).

How many other technicians convinced their readers to take long positions during that triangle?  Where do you think they sold those longs -- no doubt at the point of max pain.  How much loss did they take?  One never knows, but think about it next time I blow a call.  ;)

http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx-and-bkx-update-next-move-out-of.html

Article above also had a BKX chart, with a suggested target of 34.5-36.25 HIT.  BKX was at 38.01.  Additional profit not included in figures = 5%.

The November bottom:

Suggested first target for wave of November decline was 1140-1160 HIT for 101 points.  Article below also warned readers not to become complacent:

Now, that said, here's where things start to get interesting. Despite the fact that price has performed exactly as I've been predicting, my indicators are now giving some conflicting signals. I'll come back to that in a moment, but first: it's human nature to get complacent when things go perfectly according to plan, as they have for my readers. However, the stock market is no place for complacency. Please don't be tempted to get lazy here; I'd hate to see anyone give up their 100+ points of SPX profit at this point.

http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx-update-crash-1-seasonality-0.html

Then a second time, on November 27th, the Sunday prior to the rally, I warned of several things, including the fact that the bullish count had reached the bottoming window.  (This bullish chart was originally published in the comments section.)  Some quotes from that article:

One tendency I've observed in many traders over the years is to continue "looking" for things after they've already occurred. Here's an example. Back on Nov. 18, I wrote:

 "Assuming my preferred count is correct, market surprises going forward should be to the downside. In third waves, momentum indicators reach oversold and stay there. Bounces that should materialize, often don't."

That has already happened, as indicators have been quite oversold for some time now, and expected bounces have been non-existent to this point. But as I wrote this past Friday, now is the time when I'm finally starting to look for a bounce, because the charts are finally justifying it.

Besides the chart potential, another argument in favor of a bullish move occurring is the fact that everything's gotten so bearish. Something has to give. The market is now like a rubber band that has been stretched to its limit: either it snaps back soon... or it breaks.

But after Thursday's action, I tried to convey on Friday that a bounce definitely became something to be cautious of if you're holding short positions. If we do see a bounce here, I expect it will simply be a snap-back rally, though it could retrace as high as 1220.

I blew the snap-back call.  But I gave readers ample warning of the potential of a 60 point move against their positions with the 1220 target.  I had also given this same warning in Friday's article.  If that's not enough to cause one to cover in the target zone (as I did), I don't know what is.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx-update-bounce-or-die.html

I blew the next call (the same as above, the snap-back call).  I told everyone to “sell the bounce.”  Stops should have been placed at 1225, as per the article:

Sustained trade above 1225 would call this count into question, and would lend credence to the bullish alternate count shown yesterday.

SPX was at 1192.  LOSS of 33 points.  Keep in mind that even if one was trading very passively and didn’t capture points in the target zone of 1140-1160, then one should have stopped out at 1225 from the shorts taken in October at 1261.  This is still 36 points of profit for the most passive swing trader.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx-update-sell-bounce.html

Once 1225 was violated, I began giving serious weight to the bullish alternate count:

The bullish alternate count has of course, roared into the spotlight, and could in the end prove to be the correct count.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/spx-update-uncle-ben-saves-world.html

The December Top:

On December 2, I began suggesting that the market was in the process of topping again, regardless of whether the bull or bear count was in play.  Suggested target zone for the top was 1260-1280.  We’ll use the low end of 1260 as the short entry.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/spx-update-topping-again.html

There was also a series of articles that followed the article above, and in each one I presented more evidence that a top was forming.


The December Bottom:

On December 18, I suggested active traders may want to take profits in the “safe” 1190-1208 zone.  Profit from 1260 entry = 52 points. From the article:

The blue "Alt: B" target zone is the safer and more conservative target.

Below is only a small excerpt, but in this article I also warned at length about the potential for the more bullish counts to play out.

There are several ways to label the current decline, and if it is indeed the impulse wave the preferred count thinks it is, then it needs to show some acceleration lower soon. There are only so many first and second waves that seem "reasonable" -- after a time, one has to start considering that the whole structure may just be a corrective wave instead.

I do feel that the market is in an area where shorts need to remain aware of a potential rally; bearish sentiment is also reaching levels that have generated rallies in the recent past.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/spx-and-dow-update-critical-week-for.html

On the next day, I warned even further about the bullish rally potential, and suggested a stop loss level of 1231.47.  Once again, even passive swing traders should have profitted over 28 points on the December top.

trade above 1231.47 SPX would indicate that my favored interpretation is incorrect

http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/spx-and-ndx-update-rally-or-just-blip.html

Then two misses. 

Here I suggested the rally would top at 1254, with a stop at 1267.  LOSS of 13 points.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/spx-and-vix-update-indications-rally.html

Here I suggested the rally would top in the 1269-1310 zone.  Wherever one’s short entry, it should be readily apparent from the articles that followed that above 1310 would be dangerous for bears and thus used as a stop level.  Even though this article suggested that the rally was due to move higher than 1269, we’ll use that as the entry and 1310 as the stop, for a total loss of 41 points.
http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/spx-euro-and-dollar-update-are-bulls.html

In conclusion, emotions of hope and greed and fear are all trade killers.   Trade safe.

Further Disclaimer:  These results are based on hypothetical or simulated performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Hypothetical or simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
Posted by PretzelLogic at 12:00 AM

175 comments:

  1. CalDJanuary 28, 2012 at 12:07 AM

    Sounds to me like I need to prevail upon you guys to teach me how to trade futures. Like to get me some of that.

    ReplyDelete
  2. vinod vJanuary 28, 2012 at 12:29 AM

    WWOOWWW!! trolls much be choking on all holes :D

    ReplyDelete
  3. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 12:31 AM

    Futures are as easy to trade as stocks -- easier, actually, because they're 24 hours and the market is incredibly liquid.  The main difference is you have to police yourself heavily in your use of the leverage, because the cost of a contract won't do it for you. 

    ReplyDelete
  4. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 1:59 AM

    Nice P&L Pl.. Don't let the trolls effect you but also don't let them invade your site, seen a concerted effort of multiple trolls kill a site, watching it right now on another site. Objective research ~ YES; subjective commentary ~ NO. It is your site and their criticism is a sign of their weakness and that you are doing something right (which they cannot do) rather than doing something wrong. Take advantage of their extreme exposure of emotion, I do. And who would play put options at a point like this, that is, with any LT conviction. Or even a call. Strategy for death.

    ReplyDelete
  5. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 3:32 AM

    Some eye candy, no one knows what will happen next week but I am predicting to start, a gap down, then a building of the right shoulder on the 3P&DR DAY chart, then down. Anything notably above the extant left shoulder level will change my opinion immediately. I reserve the right to change my plan in regards to future mrkt direction.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/85257bcd-b3a9-4ebc-acb6-e1435eb0c8c0

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/c91b5170-9ce7-41e5-a94a-0e40c77fbdeb

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT-SFgkVlno

    ReplyDelete
  6. jbg1911January 28, 2012 at 6:34 AM

    Futures definitely seem to be more accommodating to trade. I don't mind using leverage, but definitely not a lot of it. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  7. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 6:40 AM

    There are plenty of fute platforms out there, might be best to call them and discuss the specifics. If you decide to go this way you should establish a clear process and rules based system. I think I posted mine way back. You see me, I do not hang in a trade for very long. I will help in any way I can with showing my method. Trading ES is not that easy and I have narrowed the parameters down to successful trade possibilities vs. not.

    ReplyDelete
  8. jbg1911January 28, 2012 at 6:44 AM

    Thanks for the eye candy Katzo. Was the last candle on RUT a Stop Grabber?

    ReplyDelete
  9. betoqJanuary 28, 2012 at 6:50 AM

    Katz,in the idealized 3p&d chart that DD posted,they said that it was essential for the 2 corrective waves after the 3p's to be there ,are they there?. also, does the level of the left shoulder not have to be above the 3p's?. TIA.

    ReplyDelete
  10. truerangeballisticJanuary 28, 2012 at 7:03 AM

    Katzo7,
    Great charts. IMO the top is in on the RUT and NDX. Had to take some small losses on Friday on my RUT spreads but sold some credit spreads to offset this. Really appreciate your work and PL you do amazing analysis. Thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  11. robJanuary 28, 2012 at 7:04 AM

    Screw the trolls PL, you don't have to defend yourself against anyone got it?

    ReplyDelete
  12. HappyJohnJanuary 28, 2012 at 7:04 AM

    Excellent work!  I'm curious as to why you (and more people) don't instead trade the YM Dow futures.  The spread is often just 1 point (or $5 per contract), as opposed to .25 (or $12.50 per contract).  This really adds up over time!  I know that overnight volume is lower, but you can still get in and out relatively easily.  Thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  13. R C VenkateishJanuary 28, 2012 at 7:24 AM

    yeah, dont waste your time on trolls, your blog's one of the best reads on EW, thanks for all the effort, great stuff

    ReplyDelete
  14. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 7:28 AM

    Stop grabber, IMO yes. See that volume, I was watching it spike when it went lower, and of course they brought it back up to the top at the close to plz the grandmothers. Sutures equal railroad tracks. This is part of the auto program for Advanced GET and plots potentially where the EW4 will reset to. I use them sometimes, sometimes not, it is basically fib. calculations. You have seen me do the fib. retrace plotting tool. If the EW chart has perfect form these railroad tracks will work; if not forget it. 

    ReplyDelete
  15. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 7:58 AM

    Brought this 3P&DH chart forward from lengthy post on last thread.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/cb57ed5a-9b7f-4a80-a52a-148897a08504

    The two corrective down waves or what is called the separating decline, separating the first floor from the second floor are there. Wall is built up to the dome too. The second floor is a bit messy, don't know if that will affect the performance. Just awaiting a possible H&S top to finish this off. 

    ReplyDelete
  16. mavrichJanuary 28, 2012 at 8:00 AM

    LOL YOU TELL THEM PRETZ! 

    ReplyDelete
  17. jbg1911January 28, 2012 at 8:00 AM

    Thanks for the info. The stop grabbers (now that I know what they're called) always fascinate me when I can see them. I'll just keep watching those wicks. And...thanks for clearing up the railroad track mystery...that's a pretty awesome platform you have their (I am currently suffering from platform envy :)))

    ReplyDelete
  18. Whip_sawedJanuary 28, 2012 at 8:16 AM

    PL,

    Hopefully, you're getting some rest.  You definitely need it with all of the work you've been doing and it is much appreciated.  This is a great article.  One of the best you've written IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  19. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 9:01 AM

    couple of other things jbg. the railroad tracks on the 5 min. (the red one) can align with the 50MA in an EW4 retrace. so someone w/o EW technology could apply the MA to the retrace on the 5 min. but remember, the 50MA on a 120 chart will read differently as far as this alignment than one a 5 min. chart. also, see the two spikes off the blue candles, that is where ppl probably had stop placement (~16.25), just above those 2 wicks. and the EOD spike reached up and grabbed them, 100$, 100$ there, soon you are talking real money. ppl might have guessed the direction 100% correctly, but lost money. as I said, I had no stop, seen this EOD behavior too much and the plan was to cover after RTH at 4:10 pm. at tgts on the chart, the 50MA or the Price Cluster. Price Cluster is was.

    look at this chart, how the 50 MA controlled the candle action.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/19dfb490-d6b8-4aeb-98d5-d40469f4adf1

    ReplyDelete
  20. Curiousmind3861January 28, 2012 at 9:07 AM

    Hi Katzo, a question about the fractal you are referring to...are you saying that we are at a similar situation as last summer. we are at the top where early July was. You are looking for a correction first, then retrace with a lower high than 1333, before the final plunge down like late July/early Aug? Thanks for your help. 

    ReplyDelete
  21. Curiousmind3861January 28, 2012 at 9:09 AM

    PL, that was quite an impressive track record. It's too bad that I didn't stumble upon your blog earlier. One thing I know now I have a beacon of light to guide me in this crazy market. Thanks for your amazing work. 

    ReplyDelete
  22. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 9:12 AM

    Ohh, I now see what you are referring to about the left shoulder being above the 3 Ps. I discussing a tiny H&S that will appear right at the end of this move, only gonna be about 8 to 10 candles, too small to see on this day chart. Since this is a day chart any bigger picture H&S is months out.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Chris KingJanuary 28, 2012 at 9:15 AM

    Nice Site PL. I have enjoyed the charts. 

    ReplyDelete
  24. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 9:30 AM

    dunno, personally i think this thing is tired, pretty played out. actually what I am pointing to is the waterfall decline as maybe being similar to the past. want to make this clear, not sayin that is WILL happen but saying that it COULD happen if 3P&DH is correct. watchin for signs. find a chart explore time frames, and look for large moves, say an up move. go back some ways, then look for a mirror image of that area in a down move. important levels are almost standardized, a break of this level, opposite or mirror image a straight line move up, might insure a quick trip down to the next level. look at the 120 $SPX. this one goes the other way, break of 1244 on 11/16 caused waterfall decline to 1160 area. then a break of 1172 on 11/28 resulted in a rally back to the starting point, 1244 area. take a look, tell me what you think.

    ReplyDelete
  25. GreenW3January 28, 2012 at 10:10 AM

    Dark Cloud Cover.  I didn't spot this immediately  but Thursday's candlesticks marked out that bearish reversal pattern by closing below 1323.03.  Just one more reversal indicator which may soon be confirmed as the top. 
    http://www.onlinetradingconcepts.com/TechnicalAnalysis/Candlesticks/DarkCloudCover.html

    ReplyDelete
  26. jbg1911January 28, 2012 at 10:27 AM

    It took me awhile to digest..(thanks for the detail)...Are the grabs wiping out the shorts and selling along the way up? If nothing else now I can see why you didn't set EOD stops...and from looking at the chart, there were stops set 1311.75, 1312.00, 1312.40, 1312.75 (and a whole lot more throughout the day.) Or, am I looking too hard.

    ReplyDelete
  27. CalDJanuary 28, 2012 at 11:41 AM

    Hmmm.. Perhaps I'd better stay away from them until I understand the meaning of that second sentence. Guess maybe I should buy a book. I've only been at this a few months and the first three things I set out to master were 1) myself, 2) basic technical analysis and 3) risk and money management. Financial instruments like futures and options are farther down my to-do list.

    Everything I read said there's just no simulating the greed and terror of trading with your own money, so I dove right in with ETFs and found that to be imminently true. Quickly realized I needed to swap items 2 and 3 around in priority and that item 1 was going to take longer than I'd hoped. So I've mainly been concentrating on that stuff lately.

    I've managed to blunder through the last few months without actually losing any money though, even after falling in early on with the Legion of Doom. And ETFs are proving to be a pretty blunt instrument for a run and gun market since it takes four days for a sale to clear. So I'm starting to think it may be time to look toward broadening my horizons a little.

    ReplyDelete
  28. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 12:13 PM

    in scanning my 250 stocks i found none that were about to burst out. remember, last week i found none that excited me either way, and the other day when i asked for symbols i found few (product of ANONs rounded top?). this week i found a number that looked ready to go south. here they are:
    flr
    cxo
    geoi
    str
    cys
    ivr
    psec
    uco
    hes
    mro
    dnr
    from this scan it appears oil and these smaller banking related stocks are set to go south. 
    gld ~ tgt of 175 should be hit sometime this week
    gdx ~ tgt of 65
    slv ~ tgt of 37
    i may or may not have positions in some or all these next week. this is not an endorsement to sell short or buy put options in any of these stocks

    ReplyDelete
  29. Phoenix58January 28, 2012 at 12:28 PM

    PL - great effort - been following you since Sept and noting how well you called it - now ready to start trading. Keep up the good work. If the Trolls followed you a bit more closely they probably wouldn't be Trolls!

    ReplyDelete
  30. truerangeballisticJanuary 28, 2012 at 12:54 PM

    Hey Katzo7 I forgot to give you my all time favorite for up and down action. CLF. It appears to be headed south IMO. Take a look and see what the charts are telling you.

    ReplyDelete
  31. AlbertarocksJanuary 28, 2012 at 12:56 PM

    If I'm not mistaken Pretzel lives in Hawaii.  Is that correct?  And if so, I do know that he keeps some crazy hours.  Also, would you be able to tell me approximately when he gets his sleep?  I wouldn't mind syncing up a bit better I can.  I myself only sleep about 5 hours a night but catch a nap every day after the markets close.  And finally, if I'm not mistaken, he puts up a new post each day shortly before the market opens, but I've never been able to nail it down.  Would that be about right?  Thanks in advance :-)

    ReplyDelete
  32. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 1:05 PM

    not quite sure where you got "1311.75, 1312, 1312.4, 1312.75" that stop grab wiped out all day trading short positions who had their stops set just about the previous high. we will take my EOD trade, entry at 1315, my stops are typically set 1.5 to 2.25 above entry point (remember no actual stop, got those m-fcukers, lol). let us say it was set at 1317.25 ES (1315+2.25).
    a measure of top of candle wick, remember it doesn't matter if it was the wick or the body, result is the same, a stop out with a loss is a loss, MEASURES 1317.25, STOPPED OUT for a 2.25 loss (your limit or threshold of pain) plus the loss in commission. you just lost 112.50 plus you are out the commission. mrkt shoots down, closes at 1312.50 AHHHHHH, beat your head against the wall ! you could have made 3 1/4 points. this was lightning fast, no way anyone could have reentered short again. i had to tuff it out. do you know RR (risk/reward) calcs? let me show you a visual of how to day trade. this system will work on any time frame and any stock some use TLs for entry and exit, I use levels provided by EW, you have seen that.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/2569e12f-c489-4f45-bce9-5e07bb2d92e1

    any questions plz ask.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 1:09 PM

    Pretzel lives in HI, keeps some crazy hours, and works straight through the night virtually every night.  Update's usually posted between midnight and 3 a.m. HI time.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 1:10 PM

    Quick shout-outs to DZ and CK for their donations earlier today -- thank you for helping to support the PretzelCharts community!  :)

    ReplyDelete
  35. Dust DevilJanuary 28, 2012 at 1:25 PM

    Here is why I think we are missing the double correction, points 11-14, after the separating decline at point 10.

    The 3PDH pattern is a bullish peak pattern. Notice how in the idealized diagram, price *rises* up to the three peaks. The castle is built atop a hill. Recall how in August, waves 1, 2 and 3 were explosive in magnitude and simultaneously compressed down to days. Furthermore, wave 1 started at the end of a giant crash wave, completely the opposite of the ideal! This particular 3PDH is a post traumatic process; it is embedded in a big hole. So when Bernanke and Trichet said something bland on October 4, at the bottom at point 10, it was like releasing an ascent capsule from a submarine on the ocean floor.

    The idealized pattern rises leisurely at the beginning and later requires the leisurely points 11-14 for a balancing rest. Isn't it inescapable then, that this consolidation must *necessarily* be dispensed with in the submerged and volatile case, to serve the principle of symmetry? So in conclusion, this is the 3PDH pattern, not a force fit.

    (reference counts: http://www.tradersdaytrading.com/3-peaks-and-a-domed-house.html)

    ReplyDelete
  36. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 1:31 PM

    Don't worry, AR, I'll make sure your great posts don't get "trolled away."  :)

    ReplyDelete
  37. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 1:39 PM

    only one way to tell, wait til next week.

    ReplyDelete
  38. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 1:54 PM

    ". . .geared toward the self-directed trader who understands the basic of proper trade management." There is the key right there. This is not a land for cowboys. There has been nothing of substance provided, no real calls, a little dollar or gold predictions, lots of noise. And hysteric postings about an impending mrkt crash, the snake bite, the seen chart. I illustrated how to play options last week in this environment, quick in-and -out with GOOG, about a 50% gain in a couple of days. Playing puts long term and discussing a mrkt rounded top? Don't go together. Trolls go after the top participants, try to divide the audience into two factions, serve no purpose. My best quote about trolls is if they call it right (always after-the-fact w/o documentation) they are a mrkt guru; if they don't it must have been someone else's fault.

    ReplyDelete
  39. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 2:04 PM

    not good. look at the MACD on the 120, see the higher high of it under recent action high? It has had a fall but does not appear to be exhausted yet (macd read, more up eventually). it has also had a substantial drop 79>>71, we missed it. evening star on the 60, that was the key.

    ReplyDelete
  40. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 2:07 PM

    i was watchin', brutal. no one deserves that treatment. . . 

    ReplyDelete
  41. truerangeballisticJanuary 28, 2012 at 2:14 PM

    Got it. thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  42. jbg1911January 28, 2012 at 2:29 PM

    Thanks Katzo... I was looking too hard for grabs throughout the day on the previous chart. Now I get the purpose of the stop grab (those MFrs) and the RR calc. I've finally gotten the hang of drawing the trend lines and having them actually work out a half hour later (it puts a smile on my face--hey I'm getting this). Sorry for the delay responding. I actually saw it 2 minutes post-post, but I have a puking 4-year old doing his Linda Blair impersonation. I appreciate the time you spend helping us newbs.

    ReplyDelete
  43. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 2:29 PM

    possible island top on AAPL/DAY. 

    ReplyDelete
  44. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 2:30 PM

    You guys should read these articles sometimes.  :)

    First paragraph of Friday's article:

    "Yesterday the market formed a bearish reversal bar: it gapped higher at the open, but closed solidly in the red. These types of bars sometimes indicate buying exhaustion."

    I guess I need to be more specific next time.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  45. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 2:32 PM

    Some readers apparently were big fans of the hysterical postings he provided.  I'll miss the entertainment value.

    ReplyDelete
  46. jbg1911January 28, 2012 at 2:34 PM

    That's the same island top that left me a baggie last quarter. I learned what an island top was the hard way. CryingOL

    ReplyDelete
  47. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 2:41 PM

    sorry, I will be watching it. 

    ReplyDelete
  48. jbg1911January 28, 2012 at 2:42 PM

    Sorry again for eggin' on "The name that shall not be spoken"... it was entertaining at times. :O

    ReplyDelete
  49. AlbertarocksJanuary 28, 2012 at 2:45 PM

    Thanks Pretzel.  I 'did' have one comment vanish yesterday from this site.  Did you happen to find it in the sin bin?

    ReplyDelete
  50. jbg1911January 28, 2012 at 2:46 PM

    Apple...oh Apple. An acquaintance of mine call it the "dumbest stock" because of it's unique nature...I do belive he makes a killing the options with it.

    ReplyDelete
  51. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 2:47 PM

    you get the concept of how it works? the TL trading? look for clean action, good waves vs. the other. you can tell the mrkts character by how it acts, nice even swings, this works. erratic ~ nothing works. use on any time frame. i cannot do a RR relationship when day trading ES, it is too fast. RULES, all about rules. break of TL and out, hit to tgt and out, no excuses.

    ReplyDelete
  52. jbg1911January 28, 2012 at 2:48 PM

    LOL

    ReplyDelete
  53. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 2:49 PM

    i know someone who only trades BIDU, nothign else. like a FT job watching that.

    ReplyDelete
  54. SpikerJJanuary 28, 2012 at 2:50 PM

    Third person, I'm thinking the hours are not the only crazy thing in Pretzeland  :)

    ReplyDelete
  55. jbg1911January 28, 2012 at 2:54 PM

    I'm going to keep it simple for the time being with TL. I'll get a handle on EW soon though. It *is* all about rules. I even printed out your rules for a quick reference. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 3:06 PM

    Wow, I'm flattered by your post!  Thanks.  :)

    As far as your question about "how much a donation is" -- it's really up to the reader.  The donations *typically* range from $50-$1000, depending on the reader.  I'm always thankful and happy for donations of *any* size though -- I'm a firm believer in the phrase "Don't look a gift horse in the mouth."  So it's not like if someone donates $25 that I'm ungrateful, quite the opposite -- for some people, $50 or $100 is a lot of money and I recognize that fact. 

    I think the fact that an individual donates *at all*, of their own free will, is a strong statement of the fact that they are of good character.  So I very much appreciate donations of any size, and I always believe that reflects well on the donor... and even the smallest donations help me feel like I'm not wasting my time here.  

    So, the bottom line is, I accept any and all donations with a grateful heart.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  57. GreenW3January 28, 2012 at 4:13 PM

    HEY MAUI P'HEAD YOU SHOULD THANK ME FOR IDENTIFYING THAT FORMATION BY IT'S ACTUAL NAME!!!  HAHA

    Ok, In truth I didn't read Friday's article, nor this current one, I do read a number of them though. Thus from my POV it was independently discovered (good thing for me & you don't usually post candlestick charts).  Besides, I really thought that formation must have a name when I saw it, much to my surprise it did.  "Dark Cloud Cover" is kind of a cool formation name anyway, possibly the coolest of them all.  In fact if it weren't for Disquss, I might have even changed this my name on this blog to Dark Cloud Cover.

    Hell, I might have even read more of your article's if your user name was "Dark Cloud Cover" - nothing at all against Steely Dan either,  I have a bit of their music, and one special piece which I should tell you about sometime.
    I think that I would have undoubtedly read yestereday's article had you titled  it "Dark Cloud Cover!" :-p

    ReplyDelete
  58. RockyTopGunnerJanuary 28, 2012 at 5:06 PM

    Pretzel, maybe I'm front running your article for monday, but your friday article said your preferred count would depend on seeing impulsive price action on friday. Do you think we got that, or are you now favoring a wave 4 with 5 to come?

    ReplyDelete
  59. Phoenix58January 28, 2012 at 5:23 PM

    Thanks mate - shouldn't be long :).

    ReplyDelete
  60. michaelJanuary 28, 2012 at 5:32 PM

    Just checked a hourly chart on SPX. Bears should not get too excited about potential reversal patterns, top etc, until SPX 1292 is taken out. I see a clear up secondary channel going back to Dec 21st at SPX 1228. This channel is not broken until approx 1313 is taken out. The next rising channel down needs a break of spx 1292. This rising channel goes back to nov25th at spx 1150. So we are still  in a rising trend which is just back-testing support. I'm personally tired of this crazy rally and can't buy into it at all. Just waiting for fireworks to start (maybe) when spx 1292 is broken next week. LOL

    I'm not a day trader, but just looking to catch a ride on a bull/bear 'trend wagon' when they become obvious and a EW 3 decline (maybe) at this point is too tempting to miss. 
     
    PL - Thanks for your charts they are of great help. I'm no expert, but I've heard that market crashes can't be predicted from a technical perspective. What are your views on this? I'm just thinking that, if the EWT bear case turns out correct, then this is probably one of the best times ever to make money on a wave3 decline in a short space of time. Maybe you could develop a theme around tackling this opportunity one night to help the readers prepare. I am setting my entry points below key trendlines (ie spx 1290) and crossing my fingers, with a stop loss just above the line. LOL

    I was lucky to make some profits betting on the Silver declines last year, but ended giving it all back to the market on two snap back SPX rallies when I went short, including this last one. Now I let the market come to me, rather than front running a trend, still learning, even money at the minute, preparing for a silver like drop!LOL.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 6:41 PM

    Basically, the setup is usually pretty recognizable.  But it's a potential, much like a triangle is a "potential" -- until the market starts breaking, it's hard to know for sure ahead of time if it's going to come to frutition or not.  But the 2008 crash was predictable, as was the September 2001 crash.  I did very well during both.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 6:46 PM

    I need to do more cross-market comparisons still, but the wave *could* be counted as an impulse -- you just have to get real creative with it.  First waves can be really ugly, though. 

    Short answer: need to do more work.  I'm usually so burned out by the time the weekend hits that I don't want to really get into the charts unil late Saturday or Sunday. 

    "Free" market analysis is far too much work relative to the pay.  :D

    ReplyDelete
  63. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 6:57 PM

    I should mention too -- regarding donations -- that some readers donate small-to-medium amounts, but do it regularly.  So it's not like it has to be a big lump sum or anything.  As I said, I accept all with a grateful heart.

    Honestly, it gets depressing when I work my ass off all week and the blog only generates 4 or 5 donations... so, often, even the smaller donations at least make me feel like this is a somewhat tangibly-productive endeavor.  They're like a more meaningful "atta-boy," if that makes any sense.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  64. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 7:02 PM

    Thanks, jbg. 

    I duz meye best too mayk SHOOR that meye ardigles our while ritten end enturtayning az much az eye kan.  Sumtymes its' verry chalengeen, thow.  Ezpeshully day aftur day!   

    ReplyDelete
  65. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 7:04 PM

    Yeah, if I ever mention it again, then it will have become your idea.  :D

    Next article will be titled, "Dork Clowd Cuvver."

    ReplyDelete
  66. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 7:12 PM

    Are you suggesting that Pretzel sometimes refers to himself in the third person?  Hmm.  Lemme ask him...

    Actually, it was just a more amusing way to reply to AR's question.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  67. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 7:15 PM

    I don't trade YM often when I'm bearishly inclined, mainly because the Dow has an upward bias due to being only 30 strong companies.  If I'm looking for a bull run, I trade YM more often.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 7:23 PM

    Basically with futures, you have a margin requirement to trade -- typical minimum is $5K per ES contract.  So your $5K is tied up when you buy or sell an ES contract.  If the market moves substantially against you and you keep your position, at some point you will be forced to liquidate if you don't have enough in your account to meet the maintenance requirements.  That's one reason it's a bad idea to buy all the contracts you "can."  You need to leave yourself room for error, so you have enough capital to get back in on the next trade. 

    Tax benefits, I honestly don't know much about -- that's what my accountant is for. 

    Thanks again for the donation, btw.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  69. AlbertarocksJanuary 28, 2012 at 9:15 PM

    Thanks for letting me know PL.  NOW... maybe you'll be willing to help me solve a problem?  Many of my comments have been "flagged" (on a different site)  by trolls just because they want to make my life miserable.  Most of them were good comments, even if I do say so myself, because they were longer comments that included quite a bit of "description", charts and links... the whole kit and kaboodle.  Those same comments sometimes had 12-18 "likes" so they weren't worthy of being flagged, that's for sure.  Nowadays, all I have to do is to include a link or two and my comments will sometimes vanish thanks to the Disqus "spam filter magic".  If my comment includes 2 links it's almost sure to disappear... needlessly  I'm guessing that Disqus now has my name under closer scrutiny (and unfairly so). 

    Would you mind putting my name on the "whitelist", if even for only a week?  What I'm trying to find out is if the "whitelist" will override the Disqus spam filters.  I'm guessing it does.   If so, then we've solved one of the greatest pains in the ass that Disqus kindly provides for all of us... especially me, lol.

    ReplyDelete
  70. AlbertarocksJanuary 28, 2012 at 9:30 PM

    AR wonders if Mr. Pretzel knows who Led Kaapana is... and the Beamer brothers.  AR drank beer with all 3 of them back in Feb. 1980.

    ReplyDelete
  71. AlbertarocksJanuary 28, 2012 at 9:50 PM

    Hey Katzo!  Did you ever notice how closely the chart of BIDU resembles that of gold?
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIDU&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91043996596&a=255487755

    ReplyDelete
  72. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 10:26 PM

    Dark Clown Commeth (troll impending post) ??

    ReplyDelete
  73. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 10:55 PM

    Huuum ('puter humming and lights blinking), this gives me ideas. thnx AR.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/ff1df8b9-7f7c-43f0-a74a-0a4c8273c5f4

    ReplyDelete
  74. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 10:56 PM

    Phoenix, many thanks for the donation and the "atta-boy"!  Both very much appreciated. :)

    ReplyDelete
  75. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 11:11 PM

    lol

    ReplyDelete
  76. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 11:18 PM

    Dunno Led Kaapana.  But I knew Uncle Don -- "I was there the night that Uncle Don lost it... at my bank.  And he was a GREAT kids' entertainer, son."

    Okay, sorry, I don't know where that came from.  There's maybe one other person on the entire planet who will have any idea what the hell I'm talking about.  That whole Uncle Don thing was something Larry King said on the air one night about 20 years ago.  Never really knew what it meant, but it amused the hell out of me.  For the record, I did NOT know Uncle Don.  I don't even know who the hell Uncle Don is.

    But Larry King does...

    ReplyDelete
  77. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 11:20 PM

    Put YOU on the whitelist?  WHAT???  Are you insane?  There's no WAY I'd even consider that.  NEVER.

    Okay, I just added you to the whitelist.  ;)

    ReplyDelete
  78. katzo7January 28, 2012 at 11:21 PM

    I keep on goin' back to the AAPL chart, I know what I said before about it being its own entity. But if this island top works out, and the rest of the mrkt drops, there could be a 30 to 40 drop in AAPL, goin' back to where it came from. And an island top is easy to discern;  this drops suddenly & voila. This is not intended to influence, persuade, or otherwise entice anyone to short AAPL but is meant as purely mrkt research. I may or may not have a position in AAPL.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/cdffafa5-93b6-4d4c-822b-9594e2b14217

    The other thing that comes to mind about AAPL and the mrkt in general is that I have found the indicators I use get really screwy. What I mean is the reading I take basically say nothing is gonna happen, they go a bit neutral, before a fall. And charts look like this. See the flatlining. MAs go sideways and are set close together. My analogy is that it is like a jet plane reaching altitude; equilibrium. No up and no down. Again, any gap down in AAPL will create an island top. Simple visual signal.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 11:25 PM

    Okay... well, I tried to anyway.  Not sure if it worked -- Disqus always gives me grief.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Pretzel LogicJanuary 28, 2012 at 11:29 PM

    Don't upset the Apple Chart...

    ReplyDelete
  81. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 12:16 AM

    An *extremely* good article about the central banks, QE, and the markets:
     
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/living-in-a-qe-world/
     

    2011 was so difficult because all stocks seemingly moved together. It was as if every S&P 500 company had the same chairman of the board that knew only one strategy, resulting in a high degree of correlation between seemingly unrelated companies.
     
    Massive central bank involvement in the markets risks returning us to a de facto centrally planned economy. Those S&P 500 companies all have the same chairman; it is Ben Bernanke because his policies are affecting everybody. That is what makes money management so difficult. Correlations will ebb and flow; they always do. But what makes them go away? This will only happen when governments and central banks go away.
     
    But if they go away, then does that not mean things get ugly? Maybe they do get ugly, but it also means that we sort out the excesses in the market. We reward the people that do the right thing and we punish the people that do the wrong thing. And we have an adjustment process that may be ugly, but then we have a period of long expansion.
     
    Central banks are ruling markets to a degree this generation has not seen. Collectively they are printing money to a degree never seen in human history.
     
    So how does this process get reversed? How do central banks pull back trillions of dollars of money printing without throwing markets into a tailspin? Frankly, no one knows, least of all central banks as they continue to make new money printing records...
     

    ReplyDelete
  82. Lena_W3January 29, 2012 at 12:45 AM

    Maybe a stupid question, but does nobody here trade with CFDs? They are great for MM with a not so big depot. Even though they have some issues with the wrong broker... Taking out stops eg. For the longer stops I like to trade CDFs, as I can partially close positions, what would be impossible with a Future contract on DAX.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 12:57 AM

    I don't trade them.  If you trade several futures contracts at a time, you can take partial positions and partial profits...

    ReplyDelete
  84. Lena_W3January 29, 2012 at 1:02 AM

    Awesome. Seeing it from the EW perspective, I see most of the central banks in a w5. As it had in most cases a running 4, I guess we see a little RT back to the last for and then new hights, before we will see real decline... Or hyper qe...

    What really shocked me, was the qe of the pboc... Did not know that one. Thanks for the link.

    ReplyDelete
  85. katzo7January 29, 2012 at 2:20 AM

    ES/120 ~ megaphone, dark cloud cover, H&S, this mrkt has more badges than a Cub Scout. Let us see what this combo does for the mrkt next week.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/67320116-00fa-444e-b132-bcae06721e1d

    ReplyDelete
  86. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 5:34 AM

    Excellent observation Katzo...It seems that there may be a repeat of
    last quarters behavior..."the dumbest stock". The players: permalong
    retail, the momo's, and the options players (I love watching opex days
    with AAPL -- it' shows just how much power MMs have). Just like your
    BIDU friend, AAPL can be its very own vocation.

    ReplyDelete
  87. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 5:44 AM

    Liyef iz awwwwwwl bowt thu chalengeen... el oh el

    ReplyDelete
  88. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 6:01 AM

    Reset button...this will not end well.

    ReplyDelete
  89. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 6:21 AM

    I like Michael's suggestion of an article (maybe a side article) addressing "How to Profit Most From Severe Market Swings" or "Fight Club Rule #2".

    ReplyDelete
  90. katzo7January 29, 2012 at 6:27 AM

    jb, you understand how to apply TL trading, stop losses, and R/R factors. No trade should be taken with a R/R under 3 to 1. 4 to 1 is better. 6 to 1 is outrageous.

    ReplyDelete
  91. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 6:29 AM

    GS to short dollar...time to go long.

    ReplyDelete
  92. katzo7January 29, 2012 at 6:34 AM

    yeah, I was just lookin at the dollar, could go either way but I could make a case for a pop as it just seems to be finishing up an EW4 down move now on an important time frame.

    ReplyDelete
  93. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 6:38 AM

    I love GS...from a purely academic standpoint, they really seem to be a contrarian indicator for the past few months I've been watching their suggestions.

    ReplyDelete
  94. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 6:46 AM

    Yup...I'll just keep it simple. Thanks for reminding me... :)

    ReplyDelete
  95. AlbertarocksJanuary 29, 2012 at 7:18 AM

    Well that euphoria didn't last long.  The short comment just above took a full minute and a page refresh to appear.

    ReplyDelete
  96. AlbertarocksJanuary 29, 2012 at 7:19 AM

    While that one was instant. lol

    ReplyDelete
  97. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 7:24 AM

    Thanks AR...I had been considering an ING account...Not anymore!!!

    I'll read the "very, very funny blog conversation" after the wife gets back from the store with a fresh box of Depends. Reading your stuff has caused my laundry expenses to rise exponentially...long Tide.

    ReplyDelete
  98. AlbertarocksJanuary 29, 2012 at 7:28 AM

    Who's Larry King?  Is that Shawn Southwick's husband?

    ReplyDelete
  99. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 7:29 AM

    "Wow!"... I hear that alot from the ladies...LOL

    ReplyDelete
  100. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 7:34 AM

    Let's see if Disqus really has a profanity filter... Goldman Sachs  Bank of America  Morgan Stanley 

    ReplyDelete
  101. davezarlingJanuary 29, 2012 at 9:03 AM

    Disgust! Sorry for the poor format above.  I tried to edit is but then Disgust got weird on me.  Not cool.

    ReplyDelete
  102. davezarlingJanuary 29, 2012 at 9:16 AM

    "Unspoken" had a chance to provide value.  Instead, provided distraction.  Started using things posted by others as his own.  Not cool.

    ReplyDelete
  103. CalDJanuary 29, 2012 at 9:42 AM

    GS?

    ReplyDelete
  104. HT00January 29, 2012 at 9:45 AM

    PL - Question about Elliott Waves. How do you confirm that a price structure is an ending diagonal or a leading diagonal other than their position in the wave structure. Are there any confirmatory tools that you look at like volume, divergences, indicators to help you confirm this? 

    Just curious to see how/why you defined the rally (Wave C) from Dec 20th as an ending diagonal and wave 1 in this ending diagonal structure as a leading diagonal.P.S: Your calls have been excellent. Trolls are all-season haters and are going to hate whether you are right or not. The very fact that they hate on you but still hang around and participate speaks to the quality of your work. Don't let their negative words get to you too much because their actions suggest otherwise. Its just their internet ego talking. Keep up the awesome work!

    ReplyDelete
  105. davezarlingJanuary 29, 2012 at 9:47 AM

    Goldman Sachs

    ReplyDelete
  106. AlbertarocksJanuary 29, 2012 at 9:59 AM

    Good idea about the Depends.  That one is really funny.  It's all about 'antagonizing'... only this time the blog owner is the antagonist.

    ReplyDelete
  107. CalDJanuary 29, 2012 at 10:00 AM

    OK, I admit I only look at the pictures.

    ReplyDelete
  108. AlbertarocksJanuary 29, 2012 at 10:10 AM

    I have just published another article but I'll disclose right upfront that it offers no predictive value at all.  It's simply an expose on what has happened with the Baltic Dry Index.  Everybody here already knows what has happened to it.  All I offer is some personal observations as to why I don't believe it's of much value in trying to get a sense of future direction for the markets for the purposes of timing trades.  I've also included some statistics regarding price action that are pretty stunning to say the least.  So you've been warned, that article is, at the most, somewhat interesting (your opinion may vary and that's perfectly acceptable as well, lol).   It dawned on me that just clicking a blog owner's name automatically takes you to the home page... and therefore directly to any new article that might be posted there.  I don't even have to post a link.  That's an awesome discovery for those of us who are lazeeee.

    ReplyDelete
  109. MrjigJanuary 29, 2012 at 11:20 AM

    Pretzel,
     
                Have you ever considered making this a subscription site? I’ve enrolled in other pay as you go sites and have not received half the education as I have in here.  Haven’t made squat yet, but that’s ALL my fault  (greedy little pig) I think your message, delivery, and most importantly work would pay for itself.  Just wondering if you have ever considered the possibility? Maybe cut down on the some of the “noise” that sometimes gets you riled up..  

    ReplyDelete
  110. MrjigJanuary 29, 2012 at 11:22 AM

    Pretzel,             Have you ever considered making this a subscription site? I’ve enrolled in other pay as you go sites and have not received half the education as I have in here.  Haven’t made squat yet, but that’s ALL my fault  (greedy little pig) I think your message, delivery, and most importantly work would pay for itself.  Just wondering if you have ever considered the possibility? Maybe cut down on the some of the “noise” that sometimes gets you riled up..

    ReplyDelete
  111. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 11:36 AM

    I see you as the protagonist...always good stuff for the hearts and minds :-)

    ReplyDelete
  112. Whoa_NellieJanuary 29, 2012 at 11:44 AM

    What's to stop them from going Buzz Lightyear and continuing until they get the inflation they want and the world's debt gets paid off with cheap CB loans.  I guess we'll find out soon when ECB does second tranche of LTRO.  1 BILLION Euros! (bites pinky)  Oh wait, that's not a lot?  10 TRILLION Euros!

    ReplyDelete
  113. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 11:56 AM

    Thanks.

    Mainly one looks at the structure.  In an ending diagonal, each wave should be a 3-wave form and waves 1 and 4 must cross paths.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 11:59 AM

    I am sooooooooo tempted to delete this post and not say anything, just to completely mess with your head.  :D

    The very funny blog conversation link at the bottom had me cracking up!

    ReplyDelete
  115. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 12:00 PM

    Thanks, MJ, I've considered it. 

    ReplyDelete
  116. katzo7January 29, 2012 at 12:08 PM

    lol, the DISGUST ate his homework. . . 

    ReplyDelete
  117. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 12:23 PM

    Many thanks to LP for her donation!  Much appreciated.  :)

    Please check your e-mail for my response to your request. 

    ReplyDelete
  118. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 12:28 PM

    Also, of minor note, I added the following paragraph to the article above for people (or specific person in this case) who didn't seem to get that I was mainly trying to track the *big* swings:

    I'm also skipping a lot of the daily commentary between the big swings, largely in the interest of time. I'm quite certain without even checking that I didn't get every single daily call correct in the interim between bottoms and tops, and vice-versa. I'm assuming neutrality of hits and misses for purposes of these numbers, and mainly tracking the bigger swings -- except for September, because September traded within a pretty narrow range.

    Alright, I need to get back to work.  Started a 12 year study last night, and I'm only about 2/3 of the way through it...

    ReplyDelete
  119. CalDJanuary 29, 2012 at 12:30 PM

    Can you make something out of it without getting creative? A hat, a brooch, a pterodactyl..?

    ReplyDelete
  120. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 12:34 PM

    lol - And stop calling me Shirley.

    Article soon, if I can finish it...   ;)

    ReplyDelete
  121. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 12:58 PM

    For the record, since the update's not done, I wanted to at least give a very short overview before the futures open:

    My historic study (now complete) suggests a top (but then again, what *doesn't*!)
    I expect, either way, that 1300 will be tested in the next couple sessions.

    The rest in the update...

    ReplyDelete
  122. CalDJanuary 29, 2012 at 1:34 PM

    Kinda  interesting. I was just watching a couple of video seminars on the Worden site and in one of them, they put up a chart like this one. It's a comparison of the S&P 500 price chart to the CBOE Implied Correlation index, which tracks correlation between S&P 500 options prices and stock options prices for the 50 largest companies (by market capitalization) in the SPX. I can't decide whether I think in indicates hearing or just that the very largest cap companies are driving the price of the index to an unusually large extend... which I guess might also be an indication of herding. Anyway, thought I might as well throw it out there, FWIW.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/CalD/folders/Default/media/bc33db19-2cf5-4e49-84c1-8f21d922a8b3

    ReplyDelete
  123. HillwalkerJanuary 29, 2012 at 1:37 PM

    Due to my job and lack of experience I prefer holding positions for days or weeks to capture the overall trend (swing trading). I am one of those who has lost money using options. 100% my fault. Any advice on what to use besides futures? For example, using SH instead of puts. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 2:05 PM

    Hey, who was the first one to point out the Fib x 2 ratio of the market to the 666 low?  I want to give credit in the article.

    ReplyDelete
  125. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 2:19 PM

    I think it was DD or Whipsawed...if not, you'll  find out :)

    ReplyDelete
  126. frannybrdJanuary 29, 2012 at 2:31 PM

    666 - isn't that the "Mark of the Beast"?

    ReplyDelete
  127. frannybrdJanuary 29, 2012 at 2:32 PM

    666 - isn't that the "Mark of the Beast"?

    ReplyDelete
  128. frannybrdJanuary 29, 2012 at 2:35 PM

    Let the trolls find another cave... Preferably, deep, deep underground.

    ReplyDelete
  129. katzo7January 29, 2012 at 2:41 PM

    ES/20

    http://www.screencast.com/users/katzo7/folders/Jing/media/5996af27-70d0-4bec-ac0d-084a0414dcab

    ReplyDelete
  130. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 2:44 PM

    The number of the beast -- hence the not-so-odd coincidence of the March '09 666 low on SPX.

    And then, of course, there's 668 -- "the neighbor of the beast"...

    ReplyDelete
  131. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 2:46 PM

    Would anyone mind checking for me?  I'm doing 16 other charts and stuff...  Purty please?  :)

    ReplyDelete
  132. AlbertarocksJanuary 29, 2012 at 2:47 PM

    LOL... oh man.  If you'd deleted this post and then just said nothing I'd be in the process of switching my blog over to Wordpress right about now.

    ReplyDelete
  133. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 2:47 PM

    Rocky, wait 'til you see my ST count.  Did the chart just fer you.  :)

    If it's right, the top's already in, and the retracement to 1320 was it for the bounce...

    ReplyDelete
  134. Whip_sawedJanuary 29, 2012 at 2:48 PM

    Wish it was me.  No, I think it was billybuster or something like that...not sure.

    ReplyDelete
  135. Whip_sawedJanuary 29, 2012 at 2:59 PM

    PL,

    It was billabuster

    His was the earliest comment that I saw, http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/spx-and-vix-updates-bears-running-out.html#comment-421455969

    ReplyDelete
  136. Whip_sawedJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:00 PM

    I had a screen capture but disqus is refusing to load it.

    ReplyDelete
  137. Whip_sawedJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:02 PM

    Danielle then commented on it, http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/2012/01/spx-and-vix-updates-bears-running-out.html#comment-421703556

    ReplyDelete
  138. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 3:03 PM

    I got one from DanielJ73

    ReplyDelete
  139. Henrik63January 29, 2012 at 3:03 PM

    I just replied billabusters call, if you seach for my reply - you'll find his

    ReplyDelete
  140. Whip_sawedJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:04 PM

    sorry for the multiple auto-replys.  Still getting used to disqus.   :)

    ReplyDelete
  141. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:08 PM

    Many thanks you guys, for checking.  Saves me a few minutes worth of work.  :)

    All in agreement it was billabuster, then?

    ReplyDelete
  142. Johnnie Flukie ReddingJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:08 PM

    September???  I found you on the Yahoo Finance page in the first week of August and went back in the archives on the Minyanville site to sometime in June and satisfied myself that you were not making things up.  And I was on the one hand  I was glad I found you and on the other wondering why I was able to read your posts for free.

    As far as these dirt chewing trolls go, just ban them, responding to them is not a productive use of your time.  None of the rest of us ever had any doubts or held any grudges.

    What you offer up is analysis of numbers over time, you can choose to pay attention too it and profit from it or ignore it.

    ReplyDelete
  143. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 3:09 PM

    No...his was the last post of the day .

    ReplyDelete
  144. katzo7January 29, 2012 at 3:10 PM

    think it was just a case of bad timing, with options timing and direction has to be exact, two variables

    ReplyDelete
  145. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:13 PM

    Which one is time-stamped earlier?  Daniel or billabuster?

    ReplyDelete
  146. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 3:13 PM

    (applause)

    ReplyDelete
  147. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 3:17 PM

    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

    ReplyDelete
  148. Whip_sawedJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:18 PM

    billabutster was 10:54AM

    DanielJ73 was 3:58PM

    ReplyDelete
  149. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 3:18 PM

    I'll check...no one else check...got it...LOL

    ReplyDelete
  150. Dust DevilJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:21 PM

    I didn't say anything about the low. I think PL has in mind some widely read guru.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Whip_sawedJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:22 PM

    Sorry, jbg1911 didn't see your post until I already posted mine.

    ReplyDelete
  152. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:22 PM

    Nope, looking for the blog reader who called my attention to it first.  :)

    ReplyDelete
  153. Whip_sawedJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:29 PM

    Maybe I have this time-stamp thing wrong, it is afterall HI time.  But billabuster was 10:54AM and DanielJ73 was 3:58PM according to Disqus...of course, we all have complete faith in Disqus right??!!!   There are hyperlinks to the actual posts in my original replies.

    ReplyDelete
  154. GGekkoJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:38 PM

    I agree.  Interested to see if this is an important top, or just some back and filling.  The next LTRO is end of February and it seems the impact of the last round has ended

    ReplyDelete
  155. B_0_BJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:44 PM

    Covered shorts from Fri @ 1305.25.  Not sure if I should have let it roll, but didn't want to get greedy - had that happen a few times these past few weeks and it went against me.  Any ST targets?  I see it broke down to 1303.50 a minute ago.  Should have figured as that was support the other day.

    ReplyDelete
  156. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 3:44 PM

    That's OK...I was gonna post "CHANGE OF PLAN..EVERYONE ELSE LOOK...I can't find it" ... :)

    ReplyDelete
  157. Whip_sawedJanuary 29, 2012 at 3:47 PM

    LOL  :)

    ReplyDelete
  158. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 3:50 PM

    I uh...despise DISQUST...I don't know how you do it PL.

    ReplyDelete
  159. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 3:54 PM

    I had a total John Belushi moment...

    ReplyDelete
  160. katzo7January 29, 2012 at 4:00 PM

    ES levels 
    1303, 1301.50, 1286.50, 1269.25
    H&S on the 120

    ReplyDelete
  161. Whip_sawedJanuary 29, 2012 at 4:01 PM

    He was one of a kind...


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxZt4Kxj2cE

    ReplyDelete
  162. Whip_sawedJanuary 29, 2012 at 4:04 PM

    Let it roll, let it roll  :)

    Still have my leg in the trap...this would go along way to springing it.  So many lessons learned, so much more to learn.

    Thanks katzo7. 

    ReplyDelete
  163. Whip_sawedJanuary 29, 2012 at 4:05 PM

    Looking forward to it.

    ReplyDelete
  164. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 4:15 PM

    Yes he was :(

    ReplyDelete
  165. B_0_BJanuary 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

    Fine let's just compromise and say it was me, okay?  :)   Found this on a Google search, not sure if its the first mention on here or not (from Thursday's comments):

    DanielJ73 4 comments collapsed Collapse Expand
    If I got my facts right.666,79 times two equals 1333,58, compared to 1333,47, almost bizarre.One of the bots cant count! So beware- we still have one rally leaft wich will take out the 0,11 missing...

    ReplyDelete
  166. CalDJanuary 29, 2012 at 4:17 PM

    Feeling a little annoyed. Just glanced at the futures board and dollars and natural gas are up, oil is down and I of course stopped out of SCO with a small profit on Thursday and UUP with a smaller loss and decided to bail in FCG at break-even plus commissions on Friday. I suppose I should give myself a little credit for sticking to my plan in each case, since that's what I'm working on most right now. But it sure would be nice to make some actual money.

    ReplyDelete
  167. billabusterJanuary 29, 2012 at 4:19 PM

    infamous billabuster

    ReplyDelete
  168. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 4:19 PM

    Been there Brutha...I still got the TZA gimp.

    ReplyDelete
  169. B_0_BJanuary 29, 2012 at 4:21 PM

    Kicking myself for getting out, but its probably better since its just hovering around 1305.  Might try to reshort if it backtests 1308.  I'm sure there will be some attempt at a gap fill tomorrow so might just call it a night and play that in the am.  Thanks for posting those targets.

    ReplyDelete
  170. jbg1911January 29, 2012 at 4:22 PM

    Give yourself A LOT of credit sticking to your plan.

    ReplyDelete
  171. B_0_BJanuary 29, 2012 at 4:27 PM

    Whoops, missed that progressing thread below this one.  Disregard.

    ReplyDelete
  172. B_0_BJanuary 29, 2012 at 4:34 PM

    lol.

    ReplyDelete
  173. Pretzel LogicJanuary 29, 2012 at 4:42 PM

    Okay, update's posted.  Let's continue discussion over there.  I'm going on the record and calling the top at 1333.  ;)

    ReplyDelete
  174. Koala_pJanuary 29, 2012 at 5:47 PM

    You are worth every penny. 

    ReplyDelete
  175. AlbertarocksJanuary 29, 2012 at 8:12 PM

    "As far as these dirt chewing trolls go, just ban them,"

    I second that emotion... be as decisive and as ruthless with them as I am.  As far as I'm concerned, anybody who posts an inflammatory comment, as long as it is perfectly clear that the sole intention is to disrupt the atmosphere in a destructive fashion... he's gone.  I'm dead serious, I consider blogs like this one as fully functional working offices where we are all trying to help each other secure our futures.  Any arsehole who ventures in to disrupt that process has go to go... immediately and permanently.  We don't have time for that.

    ReplyDelete

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